future tourism scenarios

"People want to travel": 4 sector leaders say that tourism will change and grow

The global travel and tourism industry's post-pandemic recovery is gaining pace as the world’s pent-up desire for travel rekindles. Image:  Unsplash/Anete Lūsiņa

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Shinya katanozaka, gilda perez-alvarado, stephen kaufer.

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• In 2020 alone, the travel and tourism industry lost $4.5 trillion in GDP and 62 million jobs - the road to recovery remains long.
• The World Economic Forum’s latest Travel & Tourism Development Index gives expert insights on how the sector will recover and grow.
• We asked four business leaders in the sector to reflect on the state of its recovery, lessons learned from the pandemic, and the conditions that are critical for the future success of travel and tourism businesses and destinations.

The global travel and tourism sector’s post-pandemic recovery is gaining pace as the world’s pent-up desire for travel rekindles. The difference in international tourist arrivals in January 2021 and a similar period in January 2022 was as much as the growth in all of 2021. However, with $4.5 trillion in GDP and 62 million jobs lost in 2020 alone, the road to recovery remains long.

A few factors will greatly determine how the sector performs. These include travel restrictions, vaccination rates and health security, changing market dynamics and consumer preferences, and the ability of businesses and destinations to adapt. At the same time, the sector will need to prepare for future shocks.

The TTDI benchmarks and measures “the set of factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector, which in turn contributes to the development of a country”. The TTDI is a direct evolution of the long-running Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), with the change reflecting the index’s increased coverage of T&T development concepts, including sustainability and resilience impact on T&T growth and is designed to highlight the sector’s role in broader economic and social development as well as the need for T&T stakeholder collaboration to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, bolster the recovery and deal with future challenges and risks. Some of the most notable framework and methodology differences between the TTCI and TTDI include the additions of new pillars, including Non-Leisure Resources, Socioeconomic Resilience and Conditions, and T&T Demand Pressure and Impact. Please see the Technical notes and methodology. section to learn more about the index and the differences between the TTCI and TTDI.

The World Economic Forum's latest Travel & Tourism Development Index highlights many of these aspects, including the opportunity and need to rebuild the travel and tourism sector for the better by making it more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient. This will unleash its potential to drive future economic and social progress.

Within this context, we asked four business leaders in the sector to reflect on the state of its recovery, lessons learned from the pandemic, and the conditions that are critical for the future success of travel and tourism businesses and destinations.

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Are you a 'bleisure' traveller, what is a ‘vaccine passport’ and will you need one the next time you travel, a travel boom is looming. but is the industry ready, how to follow davos 2022, “the way we live and work has changed because of the pandemic and the way we travel has changed as well”.

Tony Capuano, CEO, Marriott International

Despite the challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the future looks bright for travel and tourism. Across the globe, people are already getting back on the road. Demand for travel is incredibly resilient and as vaccination rates have risen and restrictions eased, travel has rebounded quickly, often led by leisure.

The way many of us live and work has changed because of the pandemic and the way we travel has changed as well. New categories of travel have emerged. The rise of “bleisure” travel is one example – combining elements of business and leisure travel into a single trip. Newly flexible work arrangements, including the opportunity for many knowledge workers to work remotely, have created opportunities for extended travel, not limited by a Monday to Friday “9 to 5” workweek in the office.

To capitalize on this renewed and growing demand for new travel experiences, industry must join governments and policymakers to ensure that the right conditions are in place to welcome travellers as they prepare to get back on the road again, particularly those who cross international borders. Thus far, much of the recovery has been led by domestic and leisure travel. The incremental recovery of business and international travel, however, will be significant for the broader industry and the millions who make their livelihoods through travel and tourism.

Looking ahead to future challenges to the sector, be they public health conditions, international crises, or climate impacts, global coordination will be the essential component in tackling difficult circumstances head-on. International agreement on common – or at least compatible – standards and decision-making frameworks around global travel is key. Leveraging existing organizations and processes to achieve consensus as challenges emerge will help reduce risk and improve collaboration while keeping borders open.

“The travel and tourism sector will not be able to survive unless it adapts to the virtual market and sustainability conscience travellers”

Shinya Katanozaka, Representative Director, Chairman, ANA Holdings Inc.

At a time when people’s movements are still being restricted by the pandemic, there is a strong, renewed sense that people want to travel and that they want to go places for business and leisure.

In that respect, the biggest change has been in the very concept of “travel.”

A prime example is the rapid expansion of the market for “virtual travel.” This trend has been accelerated not only by advances in digital technologies, but also by the protracted pandemic. The travel and tourism sector will not be able to survive unless it adapts to this new market.

However, this is not as simple as a shift from “real” to “virtual.” Virtual experiences will flow back into a rediscovery of the value of real experiences. And beyond that, to a hunger for real experiences with clearer and more diverse purposes. The hope is that this meeting of virtual and actual will bring balance and synergy the industry.

The pandemic has also seen the emergence of the “sustainability-conscious” traveller, which means that the aviation industry and others are now facing the challenge of adding decarbonization to their value proposition. This trend will force a re-examination of what travel itself should look like and how sustainable practices can be incorporated and communicated. Addressing this challenge will also require stronger collaboration across the entire industry. We believe that this will play an important role in the industry’s revitalization as it recovers from the pandemic.

How is the World Economic Forum promoting sustainable and inclusive mobility systems?

The World Economic Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Future of Mobility works across four industries: aerospace and drones; automotive and new mobility; aviation travel and tourism; and supply chain and transport. It aims to ensure that the future of mobility is safe, clean, and inclusive.

• Through the Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition , more than 100 companies are working together to power global aviation with 10% sustainable aviation fuel by 2030.
• In collaboration with UNICEF, the Forum developed a charter with leading shipping, airlines and logistics to support COVAX in delivering more than 1 billion COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable communities worldwide.
• The Road Freight Zero Project and P4G-Getting to Zero Coalition have led to outcomes demonstrating the rationale, costs and opportunities for accelerating the transition to zero emission freight.
• The Medicine from the Sky initiative is using drones to deliver vaccines and medicine to remote areas in India, completing over 300 successful trials.
• The Forum’s Target True Zero initiative is working to accelerate the deployment and scaling of zero emission aviation, leveraging electric and hydrogen flight technologies.
• In collaboration with the City of Los Angeles, Federal Aviation Administration, and NASA, the Forum developed the Principles of the Urban Sky to help adopt Urban Air Mobility in cities worldwide.
• The Forum led the development of the Space Sustainability Rating to incentivize and promote a more safe and sustainable approach to space mission management and debris mitigation in orbit.
• The Circular Cars Initiative is informing the automotive circularity policy agenda, following the endorsement from European Commission and Zero Emission Vehicle Transition Council countries, and is now invited to support China’s policy roadmap.
• The Moving India network is working with policymakers to advance electric vehicle manufacturing policies, ignite adoption of zero emission road freight vehicles, and finance the transition.
• The Urban Mobility Scorecards initiative – led by the Forum’s Global New Mobility Coalition – is bringing together mobility operators and cities to benchmark the transition to sustainable urban mobility systems.

Contact us for more information on how to get involved.

“The tourism industry must advocate for better protection of small businesses”

Gilda Perez-Alvarado, Global CEO, JLL Hotels & Hospitality

In the next few years, I think sustainability practices will become more prevalent as travellers become both more aware and interested in what countries, destinations and regions are doing in the sustainability space. Both core environmental pieces, such as water and air, and a general approach to sustainability are going to be important.

Additionally, I think conservation becomes more important in terms of how destinations and countries explain what they are doing, as the importance of climate change and natural resources are going to be critical and become top of mind for travellers.

The second part to this is we may see more interest in outdoor events going forward because it creates that sort of natural social distancing, if you will, or that natural safety piece. Doing outdoor activities such as outdoor dining, hiking and festivals may be a more appealing alternative to overcrowded events and spaces.

A lot of lessons were learned over the last few years, but one of the biggest ones was the importance of small business. As an industry, we must protect small business better. We need to have programmes outlined that successfully help small businesses get through challenging times.

Unfortunately, during the pandemic, many small businesses shut down and may never return. Small businesses are important to the travel and tourism sector because they bring uniqueness to destinations. People don’t travel to visit the same places they could visit at home; they prefer unique experiences that are only offered by specific businesses. If you were to remove all the small businesses from a destination, it would be a very different experience.

“Data shows that the majority of travellers want to explore destinations in a more immersive and experiential way”

Steve Kaufer, Co-Founder & CEO, Tripadvisor

We’re on the verge of a travel renaissance. The pandemic might have interrupted the global travel experience, but people are slowly coming out of the bubble. Businesses need to acknowledge the continued desire to feel safe when travelling. A Tripadvisor survey revealed that three-quarters (76%) of travellers will still make destination choices based on low COVID-19 infection rates.

As such, efforts to showcase how businesses care for travellers - be it by deep cleaning their properties or making items like hand sanitizer readily available - need to be ingrained within tourism operations moving forward.

But travel will also evolve in other ways, and as an industry, we need to be prepared to think digitally, and reimagine our use of physical space.

Hotels will become dynamic meeting places for teams to bond in our new hybrid work style. Lodgings near major corporate headquarters will benefit from an influx of bookings from employees convening for longer periods. They will also make way for the “bleisure” traveller who mixes business trips with leisure. Hotels in unique locales will become feasible workspaces. Employers should prepare for their workers to tag on a few extra days to get some rest and relaxation after on-location company gatherings.

Beyond the pandemic, travellers will also want to explore the world differently, see new places and do new things. Our data reveals that the majority want to explore destinations in a more immersive and experiential way, and to feel more connected to the history and culture. While seeing the top of the Empire State building has been a typical excursion for tourists in New York city, visitors will become more drawn to intimate activities like taking a cooking class in Brooklyn with a family of pizza makers who go back generations. This will undoubtedly be a significant area of growth in the travel and tourism industry.

Governments would be smart to plan as well, and to consider an international playbook that helps prepare us for the next public health crisis, inclusive of universal vaccine passports and policies that get us through borders faster.

Understanding these key trends - the ongoing need to feel safe and the growing desire to travel differently - and planning for the next crisis will be essential for governments, destinations, and tourism businesses to succeed in the efforts to keep the world travelling.

The State of Travel in 2024: Top 3 Charts

Varsha Arora , Skift

September 10th, 2024 at 1:24 PM EDT

The travel industry is rapidly evolving, and the State of Travel 2024 report provides comprehensive insights into the key trends and shifts shaping its future.

Varsha Arora

• What are the key trends highlighted in Skift's State of Travel 2024 report?
• How are social media platforms influencing travel bookings today?
• Can you provide more details about the growth of consumer spending on experiences over material goods in the travel sector?

Select a question above or ask something else

• The travel industry is thriving in 2024, with strong growth and profitability.
• Key trends include the rise of experiential travel, a shift towards direct bookings, and changing travel loyalty programs.
• Skift's report provides comprehensive insights into consumer trends and business shifts in the travel sector.

The travel industry continues to experience strong growth and profitability in 2024, despite facing new challenges and opportunities. Skift's comprehensive report, featuring over 350 slides, covers key trends such as the rise of experiential travel, the shift towards direct bookings influenced by social media, and changing dynamics in travel loyalty programs. These insights highlight how consumer preferences and business strategies are evolving, impacting the future landscape of travel.

The travel industry has continued to thrive in 2024, with businesses experiencing healthy growth and strong profit margins. However, as the industry evolves, it faces new challenges and opportunities that will shape its future. The Skift Research team has released a comprehensive report featuring over 350 slides, detailing industry performance, consumer trends, and business shifts that will impact the travel landscape for years to come.

While the report covers a wide range of topics, I’ve selected three standout charts that showcase some of the most exciting trends and developments in travel today.

1. The Rise of Experiential Travel

One of the most significant shifts we’ve observed is the growing focus on experiences over material goods. As consumers increasingly prioritize unique, memorable encounters over traditional travel consumption, the demand for experiential travel is skyrocketing. This shift is not just a passing trend—it’s transforming the global tourism landscape. According to McKinsey, the experiential travel market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025.

The chart highlights the growing share of consumer spending on experiences such as entertainment, adventure travel, and personalized excursions. While spending on basic goods remains essential, the proportion spent on enriching experiences continues to rise, reflecting a fundamental change in traveler preferences. Travel companies must embrace this shift by offering more curated, personalized experiences to capture this growing demand.

2. Social Media’s Role Expands Beyond Inspiration to Direct Booking in Travel

Our recent report Direct Bookings vs. OTAs: Analyzing the Shift in U.S. Travel Booking Trends highlights a  notable shift towards direct bookings, especially during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our U.S. Travel Trends survey shows that before the pandemic, bookings through Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) and direct channels (supplier websites or apps) were nearly equal. However, post-pandemic, travelers have shown a clear preference for direct bookings. About 51% of respondents reported an increase in direct bookings, driven by factors like better prices, exclusive deals, greater control, and more reliable customer service.

At the same time, social media platforms are becoming an increasingly influential tool not just for inspiration but for actual travel bookings. Our data shows that 34% of travelers feel very comfortable booking directly through social platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube, particularly younger travelers. Comfort with booking high-priced services, such as flights and hotels, through social media platforms is steadily increasing, reflecting a growing trust in these channels as viable booking options.

This creates an interesting dynamic: while many travelers still prefer the control and benefits of booking directly with suppliers, the convenience and seamless experience offered by social media is becoming a compelling alternative. For OTAs and suppliers alike, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. By integrating “Book Now” buttons or using targeted ads on these platforms, both OTAs and direct suppliers can tap into the growing trend of social commerce, while continuing to emphasize the pricing, trust, and customer service advantages that make direct bookings appealing.

3. Shifting Dynamics in Travel Loyalty Programs

Loyalty in the travel industry is changing, particularly among younger travelers. A study by McKinsey & Company shows a steep decline in the likelihood of customers recommending airline loyalty programs, contrasting with the relatively stable likelihood of recommending the airlines themselves. This suggests that while service quality remains appreciated, loyalty programs no longer hold the same appeal as they once did.

Skift Research’s report Exploring Gen Z and Millennial Travel Habits found that only 9% of travelers join loyalty programs out of brand loyalty, with most opting in for discounted travel instead. This suggests that loyalty is no longer solely about brand allegiance.

This shift is creating new opportunities for travel companies to innovate. The chart on travel loyalty highlights how diverse brand interactions and personalized offers are becoming increasingly important to today’s travelers. Flexibility and value in loyalty programs are now key to retaining customers, and brands that adapt will reap the rewards.

Stay Ahead of the Trends with Skift’s State of Travel 2024 Report

These are just a few of the trends covered in Skift’s State of Travel 2024 report. Download the State of Travel 2024 report for free today.

State of Travel 2024

Our State of Travel report is designed to be your reference handbook to navigating the complex world of travel in 2024. We have put together 350+ insights with the hope to have a chart for almost any topic.

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Looking to 2050: Where is Tourism Headed

Birthe Menke and Ian Yeoman look forward to 2050 and discuss where tourism is headed and the mega drivers of change.

Whilst we can predict many things, we have to consider different scenarios. There is a cultural prescription for humans to value certainty, but we should also cultivate a new attitude that values uncertainty because the industry can only become resilient if we give up predetermined expectations of what will happen. This entails changing our approach to strategy development and embracing the unknown. Tourism is about going on a journey, experiencing new things and balancing the values of comfort and adventure. The industry can better incorporate an openness to different ideas and the need for evaluating different variables by including more perspectives and diversity during decision-making.

In this episode of our Leading Tourism's Transition podcast series, Birthe Menke and Ian Yeoman look forward to 2050 and discuss where tourism is headed. We explore the mega drivers behind trends and look at some of the disruptors to see how tourism futures are shaped by these developments. We consider if it's possible to have a degree of confidence in predicting what the future will look like and the process of conducting scenario planning to identify potential challenges ahead of time.

You can listen to the episode here 👇

Birthe Menke is a PhD fellow in sustainable tourism development and co-design at the University of Southern Denmark . Her PhD analyses how tourism professionals navigate the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to understand how they give meaning to the SDGs in a local context. During her research, it became clear that while people were making efforts to be more sustainable, their vision of what initiaitves might lead to was relatively unclear. Consequently, Birthe's research shifted from focusing on sustainability into analysing how futures thinking in tourism can help incorporate the visions of the SDGs into companies' sustainability initiatives.

Ian Yeoman is a Professor of Innovation - New Phenomena & Disruption at NHL Stenden in the Netherlands and an Adjunct Professor in Tourism Futures at Victoria University of Wellington . Ian specialises in understanding the future direction of the tourism industry and what is driving long-term change in society. He uses co-creation to design what the future will be, considering the degrees of certainty or impossibility for different scenarios.

Futures Thinking in Destinations

Encouraging tourism professionals to use futures thinking involves inspiration and co-creation. On the inspiration side, new insights should be shared with organisational leaders. It's important to say what will happen and explain the reasons for such an outcome, along with the process of how these changes will occur and radically affect and transform organisational activities and operational processes.

Inspiration can be done through stories, facts or science-fiction. Innovation and storytelling are extremely important because if people can remember the insights, it enhances the meaning and helps to go beyond normative thinking. When talking about something new and different, these expected changes need to be communicated with tourism leaders. Sometimes, this involves talking about technological changes that are not happening in tourism and how these could be applied within the industry. For example, AI is the latest trend that the industry can learn to capitalise on. Such technological development has been discussed in the engineering and technology literature for the past decade, but only recently have the majority of people in other industries become aware of its capabilities and potential applications.

Moving beyond inspiration is taking these ideas of change and working with practitioners to create scenarios for a range of different futures. This process focuses on understanding what change means for businesses and destinations, the implications of the expected changes and how to manage the change. Workshops and discussions with industry leaders are the main tools to facilitate change in order to drive policies or strategies forward.

When moving beyond inspiration, there is a realisation that change will occur. For example, climate change as a science has been debated for 50 years. Over the past couple of years, there has been a strong realisation that climate change is happening and the implications of such a disruption event.

As an example, Croatia will be impacted by two big factors that will shape the future of tourism in the country, namely climate change and demography. Croatia's GDP is centred on tourism as its number one industry, followed by wine and manufacturing. Over the next two decades, the present tourism product of beach, coast and sun will be radically different because Croatia will have a four-degree rise in temperature according to IPPC scenario modelling. Meanwhile, according to demography forecasts, the country will lose a quarter of its population in the next 25 years due to external migration to other EU countries; from 4 million people to 3 million by 2050. These factors will pose significant challenges for the destination. However, as an industry, these facts need to be accepted and understood in terms of the effects of such shifts. This becomes the foundation of scenario planning.

Similarly, in consultancy work for New Zealand's Ministry of Innovation, Employment and Business about the future of tourism and the impacts of technology on how work will change, the concept of singularity was highlighted. The growing usage of technology will be irreversible and the world needs to adapt. People disregard some of the predictions about new technologies, such as robots, becoming mainstream. However, when giving examples of the advancements in technology and how this sector is developing and it creates 'wow moments'.

Talking through the different ongoing technical developments and their implications in terms of change management is not only inspiring, but can also be demonstrated in a practical sense, helping organisations learn which innovations are occurring and their potential applications. CEOs and strategic leaders know the world isn't constant and is always changing. If businesses can understand the changes and the implications for the industry before their competitors, then they can grapple with these challenges and maintain or improve the relevancy and value of their services and be better suited for working in a new operating environment. Making sense of the future, therefore, helps with strategic decision-making about becoming more adaptable as a business and remaining resilient in the face of new challenges and a changing world.

Tourism is a very competitive industry. Every country has its own guide book and even rural locations have their own tourism offices. Every place is involved in tourism and wants to attract visitors to their destination. What is important in the experience economy is innovation and change, with new ideas making a big difference. The only way that entrepreneurs can facilitate innovation is by taking a futures perspective. If you ask people to think of the impossible, then then they will get ideas to generate increased profits.

Tourism Strategy Planning

Medium-size companies and destinations generally have a strong realisation about strategy and policy and tend to take a longer-term perspective in plans. These organisations understand the need to follow global and local trends in terms of demography, technology and spatial planning to have an idea of the direction of change in the world. Tourism is an extremely innovative industry and businesses are always searching for new ideas. At a very micro-level, tourism businesses are looking for changes in consumer behaviour and how they can tap into new customer attitudes and desires.

When thinking about how the tourism industry considers futures thinking, businesses are always defined by the short-term pressures that surround them, such as showcasing strong performance and demonstrating competitiveness in the immediate future through campaigns or branding initiatives. There is also space in many organisations for mid-term thinking for strategies looking two to five years into the future that develop certain initiatives or tap into specific opportunities that are on the horizon. The further ahead that businesses look, it seems to get harder to justify creating space for futures thinking.

One of the most pressing issues facing businesses is the existential climate crisis, which is also interlinked with other changes happening across the world. Sustainability has become a priority in the day-to-day work of businesses because it is recognised as being a high priority on the political agenda. However, there is a need to create space to consider the other critical issues on the horizon that will affect the future of tourism.

Often, there doesn't seem to be time within operational activities to consider many alternative predictions. However, in order to be competitive and successful in the future, organisations have no choice but to entertain many ideas of alternative futures in order to be able to create the kinds of experiences that people are looking for.

Futures thinking should be clearly separated from operational aspects. Operational managers focus on the immediate business needs. However, futures thinking is about strategic thinking and preparation. Unit level managers lack the time and resources to engage with futures thinking since they're worried about cash flows and the current state of the business and lack the ability to implement strategic changes.

Futures thinking is part of the remit of managing directors and policymakers who are taking a long-term perspective about their organisation. People should only be involved in futures thinking where they are able to create change. This involves working with the right companies and associations that are interested in long-term change.

Generational Shifts

There has been a lot of discussion about how Generation Z have fundamentally different motivations for choosing and scheduling work as well as around possible tensions with other generations in more managerial positions. However, such differences between generations have always been visible throughout history. Younger people tend to be more radical and become more responsible and conservative as they get older.

In the context of the tourism industry, people's attitudes to life change over time. The activities they want to do, the products they consume and the way they engage as a tourist are very different when they are a teenager or a retired pensioner. From a futures perspective, it is extremely important to engage with different attitudes and value systems.

When constructing scenarios, multiple views of the world need to be considered. Diversity is key to the process. Scenarios need to consider different generations, genders, income groups, nationalities and other demographic indicators. Futures work is about different opinions and understanding differences between people. It's important to understand what will change over time. What is ethical today will be different in terms of how people perceive ethics in the future.

Organisations need to understand all the different viewpoints if they are to predict how the world will evolve and its implications for business. However, developing rich and diverse views of the future not only involves time in the process of creating different scenarios, but also in terms of interacting with enough voices to provide a true reflection of modern-day realities.

The role of Destination Management Organisations (DMOs) is about understanding change because destinations need to understand how demography and landscapes will change and what sustainability means in their local context. They need to be able to put these different considerations together to paint a picture of what the future of their destination will be.

Once the future has been defined, DMOs need to outline the actions they should take to plan for change, for example, in terms of capacity management and the types of tourists they expect to visit. Businesses then also evolve because they are looking up to the DMO to give them an overview of how the destination will develop and the significance of different trends. As an example, the restaurant industry has been shaped by the experience economy and the growth of food tourism because people have more wealth and are more interested in sustainability.

Tourists are hedonistic and want to be excited. It's essential to follow the trends and understand what they mean for business and the actions that need to be taken along the journey. Ultimately, it comes down to the leadership of DMOs in terms of building resilience in the tourism sector. DMOs should help the industry with long-term planning to identify and prepare for future shocks, such as pandemics.

Shaping Destination Strategies

The discourse in tourism has shifted towards putting sustainability at the centre of decisions. This includes finding space to involve locals in discussions about the future of destinations. On the one hand, tourism experts work on developing and exploring possible scenarios. On the other hand, destinations are also implementing frameworks to consider community input, in terms of their wishes and desires for how the place they live will look or change because of tourism.

It's not possible to predict an exact future. However, it is possible to give a range of scenarios because futures thinking and foresight are based on the concept of plurality. From these different scenarios, when thinking about the ideal future, every scenario will have a different value system. This leads to discussions about the different futures to identify which is perceived as the ideal future.

DMOs or businesses need to make a decision about which of the scenarios is preferable and the decisions they will take to reach that future. For example, when considering a scenario about disaster dystopia, there is a need to consider what actions will help avoid that future. Conversely, a scenario about utopia should lead to deciding which actions will accelerate that future.

There are a range of questions that can be asked to reach a consensus. This process also involves consultation with different stakeholders of varying sizes and levels of power to understand their views on the ideal future. Participation and engagement are key and there are different ways to use scenarios for creating destination strategies. For example, the consultation can be very immersive and involve talking and encouraging different people to openly share ideas. Alternatively, it's also possible to take a top-down approach.  

Sustainability and climate change are key considerations for destinations because where there is dystopia, people always want hope. This comes in the form of the regenerative tourism trend. DMOs and governments have put sustainability at the centre of their decisions. Strategic leaders are conscious that COVID-19 decimated tourism. The industry stopped completely, which enabled a renewed focus on rethinking the way the industry works. This meant that all of the discussions over the last couple of years have been focused on how tourism would look in a better world.

Mega Drivers of Change

There are slow-moving mega drivers of change in society, such as technology, climate change, mobility, humanity and globalisation. It's possible to predict and understand how these mega drivers will change over time. For example, demography is a well-rehearsed science and people can make predictions about population size in the future by monitoring birth and death rates. Similarly, climate change modelling has also become fairly accurate.

When predicting the future, it's important to understand what each mega driver means for tourism. Below each mega driver is a series of micro trends that helps to provide context about each mega driver from a tourism perspective. For example, wealth could influence luxury tourism. The older you get, the less materialistic you become. Females tend to be more interested in experiences and enrichment, while men like fast cars. Understanding the concept of demography by age group, income level or sexuality means that it becomes possible to look at visitor profiles for a destination and segment by these factors to understand what luxury tourism looks like.

Similarly, it's possible to get more in-depth insights about the importance of climate change. Different generations have varying perceptions of this phenomenon and differing value systems, while age and gender have an influence on the degree of activism espoused by consumers. Mega drivers can be broken down into detail to understand the impact on tourism at a local level in terms of purchasing behaviour.

These different mega drivers and micro trends can be monitored through data from official sources, such as UN agencies, the World Bank , the Asian Development Bank , or reputable consumer research companies, such as Euromonitor and the Foresight Factory . When somebody wants to understand what the future of tourism will be, for example, how technology will change tourism, these trends can be brought together and discussed during a workshop. This will help decide the most important trends which will be used to create a number of scenarios.

These scenarios are based on different understandings. One scenario is very predictive and involves extrapolating the data into the future based on normative thinking. Another scenario would be about a radical science fiction transformation. A third scenario would focus on a utopian alternative world, looking at a rebound from a crisis. A final scenario will be something that may happen based on adding an element of diversity to the normative continuation.

These four alternative futures will tell a story in different ways. For example, the food festival Wellington on a Plate asked what the event will look like in the future. In this work, different variables were reviewed, including the value system of consumers and the types of foods they will and won't eat. This was then extrapolated into the types of events that people would go to within a festival and the philosophy of different scenarios. The four scenarios focused on different elements, such as the role of science in food festivals, the role of wellbeing, the role of the community, and the role of authenticity.

During foresight work, it's important to engage with people who can action change because of the linear model flowing from identifying trends, creating scenarios, planning actions and developing strategies. Scenarios should focus on the interlinkages between different trends and envisioning the future to help senior managers obtain a high degree of understanding about the future and the required changes to remain successful.

Foresight work is about implementing the outcomes and shouldn't just be used for writing reports. There are a few exceptions, such as government consultations that aim to paint a picture of the future to understand how it affects policies and the actions needed to prepare or prevent a specific future and help shape government strategy.

DMO Involvement in Futures Thinking

DMOs should take responsibility for futures thinking in their destination and understand trends at a grander scale to help businesses in a local context. Nevertheless, such a role depends on the size of the DMO and the resources available to it. At the country or big city level, futures thinking is very important because it's all about planning and foresight to create change.

Destination management needs an integrated approach to managing change. DMOs create a vision for how the destination should position and brand itself as a place as well as outline values and competitiveness. DMOs also have a supporting role to play in upgrading physical infrastructure and understanding local communities' willingness to support tourism and provide a friendly welcome to visitors. When planning for increased arrivals, destinations need to consider, for example, capacity, staffing levels and spatial planning.

Scenario planning provides a mechanism to make sense of the world and create predictions about possible events, such as the outbreak of pandemics. While some scenarios may have scary outcomes, at some point one of these events will occur. It's important to use scenario planning to understand how such a situation will affect the organisation and what can be done to prepare for it and the actions that will mitigate its impact.

Futures thinking is a way to bring different stakeholders together from different agencies to plan for the future and work together. Tourism is not just about the Ministry of Tourism and DMOs, it is also about transport connections, environmental protection and workforce planning.

Scenarios help to provide strategic leadership to shape the picture of the future so that people can understand what will happen and work more collaboratively. In 2008, Visit Scotland looked into the future of visitor centres and how mobile phones will change the way tourists seek information. Similarly, Visit Scotland wished to invest in developing food tourism products and conducted scenarios around the expected changes in food and the outcomes of not implementing change management. Climate change and sustainability were also seen as being long-term drivers of change. Through these projects, Visit Scotland obtained an understanding of the future and also generated external leverage because of their leadership position and the media outlets this created.

Scenario planning is about being exploratory and having fun. Sometimes organisations stay safe with things that can be predicted based on statistics, data and forecasting, while other times they will be more imaginative. However, when confronted with questions about the future, people tend to be reluctant to say radical ideas in public.

Understanding how things might be different is exciting because once you have the agency to bring change, it becomes possible to think about larger-scale policy, strategy and actions. Experiments with open ideation sessions show that people believe they are a fun tool that enables resources to be used differently. There are mechanisms to join people together who already have visions of the future and use this knowledge to contribute to everyday practice.

Encouraging organisations to use futures thinking involves providing inspiration through storytelling and sharing new insights as well as co-creation of scenarios. Futures thinking is separate from day-to-day operational management. Instead, futures thinking is about shaping long-term strategy and preparing for the future. This enables businesses to be more competitive and generate new ideas for maximising profitability and adapting to evolving consumer behaviour.

Technology is constantly developing and can improve operational processes and the visitor experience. The singularity effect means there will be continuous development in this field and change is always occurring. While organisations may feel they have a lack of time to understand the changing world, it is essential to ensure their longevity.

Scenario planning is a tool to make sense of the world and provide a range of possible futures and their implications for businesses. These scenarios should consider the interlinkages between the mega drivers of change and the micro trends they are comprised of. Involving diverse opinions in the process is key to ensure differing attitudes and value systems are contemplated and that local communities have a voice in the process.

During the scenario planning process, questions should be asked about the ideal future. This involves running workshops to consult all types of stakeholders and encourage them to engage and participate in the discussion. Ultimately, the end result of the linear process is the generation and implementation of strategic actions. Therefore, futures thinking and scenario planning are crucial aspects of the role of senior management.

DMOs should lead the futures thinking process within their destination to shape the vision for the destination and should also support businesses in aligning with the strategy. This requires an integrated approach destination management. DMOs should also help build resilience in preparation for disruptor events. This leadership position helps to generate leverage and build a strong reputation.

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Journal of Tourism Futures , Open Access

Issue(s) available: 27 – From Volume: 1 Issue: 1 , to Volume: 10 Issue: 2

• Issue 2 2024
• Issue 1 2024
• Issue 3 2023
• Issue 2 2023
• Issue 1 2023
• Issue 3 2022 Transformation and the Regenerative Future of Tourism
• Issue 2 2022 The Re-Imagination of New Zealand Tourism
• Issue 1 2022
• Issue 3 2021 Tourism in crisis: global threats to sustainable tourism futures
• Issue 2 2021 Part 2: Tourism trends
• Issue 1 2021 The future of e-HRM and artificial intelligence in the hospitality and tourism industry
• Issue 3 2020 Part 1: tourism trends
• Issue 2 2020
• Issue 1 2020 The Future of Polar Tourism
• Issue 3 2019
• Issue 2 2019 The future of experiential travel
• Issue 1 2019
• Issue 3 2018 History of Tourism
• Issue 2 2018
• Issue 1 2018 Millennials and Generation Z: Challenges and Future Perspectives for International Tourism
• Issue 2 2017 The Future of City Tourism
• Issue 1 2017
• Issue 2 2016 Political ideas and developments in future tourism
• Issue 1 2016
• Issue 3 2015 Future of accessible tourism
• Issue 2 2015
• Issue 1 2015

The future of tourism: interview with Professor Heike Schänzel about her role as Associate Editor of the Journal of Tourism Futures

As the Journal of Tourism Futures celebrates its 10th anniversary, Dr Ian Yeoman (Hotel Management School Leeuwarden) interviews Professor Heike Schänzel (Auckland University of…

Pick me! I am young, healthy and interested in the arts in your city! – exploring the future of travel visas

This viewpoint paper aims to explore the past, present and future of travel visas granting permission to travel. Visa restrictions are used by governments as an efficient method…

Will COVID-19 be the trigger point for developing visitor attraction revenue management?

The purpose of the paper is to explore how the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will influence the development of revenue management practice in the visitor attractions sector.

UNESCO, mining heritage and the scalar sustainability of tourism geographies at industrial World Heritage Sites

Industrial heritage works within a world of contradictions, contentions and scalar liminality. Archaeologists and historians focus upon oral histories and discourses of tangible…

From coal to tourism: a game-changer in the sustainable transition process

This paper gives mining area managers guidance on how to begin this process and which scenario to choose. It aims not only to improve the quality of the environment but also to…

A community development approach for regenerative tourism in the Nordics: lifestyle entrepreneurs towards a placed-based research agenda

The purpose of this conceptual paper is to explore the potential of regenerative tourism practices and their influence on destinations and their stakeholders from a community…

A bibliometric and visual analysis of revisit intention research in hospitality and tourism

One of the issues currently being discussed around the globe, and especially in the tourism industry, is revisit intention. This study uses a bibliometric analysis strategy based…

Regenerative nature-based tourism: tour guides and stakeholder dynamics in Arctic Norway

The research paper aims to explore how tour guides can contribute to regenerative tourism and the ways in which natureculture guiding practices align with stakeholder interests…

Tourism digital detox and digital-free tourism: What do we know? What do we not know? Where should we be heading?

While past research has begun exploring digital-free tourism, tourism digital detox and their benefits, no study to date has comprehensively mapped trends, findings and…

Understanding mobile augmented reality apps in Pakistan: an extended mobile technology acceptance model

Augmented reality (AR) adoption has boomed globally in recent years. The prospective of AR to seamlessly integrate digital information into the actual environment has proven to be…

The role of rural tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs in rethinking current tourism development

Discussions on tourism development address the urgent need to reduce the negative impacts of tourism on tourist destinations. Despite decades of trying to find potential ways to…

Tourism digital transformation and future supply chain competition: an integrated perspective on real options theory and digital competencies

This study analyzes how digital technologies collaboration, and technological capabilities affect tourism products' advantage and supply chain resilience via virtual integration…

Soft skills in the tourism industry of the future: a comparison between Italy and Spain

The harmonisation of university degrees at the European level leads us to believe that training needs are addressed in the same way in different countries. However, the inevitable…

Towards a future conceptualization of destination resilience: exploring the role of actors, agency and resilience narratives

Despite the widespread use and application of resilience, much uncertainty about the conceptualization and operationalization in the context of tourism destinations still exists…

The end of tourism? Contemplations of collapse

This viewpoint engages with Jem Bendell’s deep adaptation framework which was developed as a response to the threat of collapse. Proponents of deep adaptation argue that societal…

Google Trends data and transfer function models to predict tourism demand in Italy

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty…

How can communities better prepare for future disasters? Learning from the tourism community resilience model from Bali, Indonesia

The impact of COVID-19 on tourism destinations has been severe, but a future crisis is never far away. How communities can better prepare for disasters to come in the near future…

Advancing tourism demand forecasting in Sri Lanka: evaluating the performance of machine learning models and the impact of social media data integration

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Transformations in tourism following COVID-19? A longitudinal study on the perceptions of tourists

This study attempts to answer how values and holiday preferences were shaped by the pandemic, how travellers view the future of tourism and how they are willing to contribute to…

Smart destination competitiveness: underscoring its impact on economic growth

The current study is designed to investigate the factors that foster the framing of destination competitiveness and establish the factors that drive the contribution of tourism…

Generation Z as a critical question mark for sustainable tourism – An exploratory study in Portugal

Much has been speculated about the role that Generation Z will play in achieving more sustainable development. The tourism sector gains a special role in this discussion. On the…

Introducing Amazon Explore: a digital giant's exploration of the virtual tourism experiences

Amazon Explore is a new online experience product from Amazon, which offers live stream sightseeing of destinations around the world. This paper aims to provide a first insight…

Mass tourism, biosecurity and sustainability challenges: prospects illustrated by the current COVID-19 pandemic

Using COVID-19 pandemic as a more immediate empirical reference, this paper aims to understand the biosecurity risks arising from tourist activities and, through a more…

Obese destinations

Whether a human body has a healthy carrying capacity is calculated by body mass index (BMI). The BMI is found by dividing body weight in kilograms by the square of body length. If…

Cultural tourist and user experience with artificial intelligence: a holistic perspective from the Industry 5.0 approach

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the future of the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in services experience provided by cultural institutions…

The next frontier of the Internet of Behaviors: data-driven nudging in smart tourism

This conceptual study examines the implications of the Internet of Behaviors (IoB) for tourism stakeholders in a hyper-connected and data-driven world.

Opportunity of the accommodation establishment development: a need for nature-based services and eco-friendly activity

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the opportunities of development of the accommodation establishments by accepting the current shifting in travellers' needs and the…

An empirical study on the imbalance phenomenon of data from recommendation questionnaires in the tourism sector

Recommendation systems are a fundamental tool for hotels to adopt a differentiating competitive strategy. The main purpose of this work is to use machine learning techniques to…

The future of sports tourism in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic – Developing a new paradigm model

Sports tourism was strongly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is no consensus on what sports tourism should look like in the post-pandemic period. This study explores…

An exploratory study of the future paranormal tourist experience on ghost tours

The purpose of this study is to explore the paranormal tourist experience on ghost tours, taking into account the participants’ perceptions and their prior knowledge of the…

The present and future of hotel star ratings through the eyes of star rating operators

The purpose of this study is, first, to determine which developments have shaped official hotel classification systems over recent years (including the impact of guest-review…

Exploring governance effectiveness, tourism development and poverty reduction relationship in SAARC countries using panel dynamic estimation

The present study aims to examine the moderating impact of governance quality on the tourism poverty nexus using a panel of six South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation…

Electronic word of mouth for the choice of wellness tourism destination image and the moderating role of COVID-19 pandemic

Information technology as a source of information and decision-making has wider acceptance in contemporary times. Studies have identified the importance of electronic word of…

Factors influencing university students in conducting ecotourism

This study examines the factors that influence the ecotourist behavior of university students. The understanding of what motivates these students can inform future suggestions for…

Negative and positive antecedents of intention to resume hotel consumption in new normal settings in Malaysia: insight from three psychological theories

Applying three psychological theories, this study aims to attempt to investigate the role of consumer psychology, specifically the factors of trust in vaccination, threat…

Economy-led sustainable touristic city: the case of Surakarta, Indonesia

This paper attempts to examine drivers of tourism development by affording a framework that sustains economic growth and protects the local environment. It develops evaluative and…

Prioritizing motivators influencing intentions to visit spiritual destinations in India: an application of analytical hierarchical process (AHP) approach

Spiritual tourism is becoming a significant growth area of the Indian travel market, with more Indians opting to go on pilgrimage to popular religious cities. There are many…

The technology acceptance model revisited: empirical evidence from the tourism industry in Pakistan

This paper aims to analyze the adoption of social media platforms by tourists in Pakistan. Based on an adaptation of the technology acceptance model (TAM), this study assesses the…

A systematic approach for predicting loyalty behavior of tourist destinations

Destinations to be able to compete with each other need to equip themselves with as many competitive advantages as possible. Tourists' loyalty to a destination is considered as a…

Impacts and restoration strategy of the tourism industry post-COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Vietnam

This paper presents the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam's tourism industry to propose appropriate recovery strategies in the future.

I'm afraid to travel! Investigating the effect of perceived health risk on Malaysian travellers' post-pandemic perception and future travel intention

This study investigates the effect of COVID-19 pandemic perceived health risk on traveller's post-pandemic perception and future travel intention. The study aims to provide…

Optimization model: the innovation and future of e-ecotourism for sustainability

This study aims to find a dynamic model in an effort to optimize tourism performance in ecotourism destinations. The model structure is built based on competitive performance in…

Analyzing the main determinants of being a cultural traveler: the case of domestic cultural trips in Spain

Analyzing the main determinants that lead a traveler to make a cultural trip is an important issue to understand where the cultural tourism market is going, and where the…

Glocalizing tourism in Southeastern Nigeria: residents’ perspectives

The purpose of this paper is to explore and understand the perceptions of residents of Southeastern Nigeria about glocalizing tourism in the region to help improve their support…

Machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic: a multisource Internet data approach

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

Linking the intrinsic and environmental constraints with PwD tourists' behavioral intentions toward a travel destination: mediating role of learned helplessness

The present study examines the antecedents of learned helplessness, i.e. intrinsic and environmental constraints and consequences, i.e. intention to travel and expectation in the…

Personalities shaping travel behaviors: post-COVID scenario

This study aims to offer insights into a sounder understanding of tourist behavior and travel patterns by systematically identifying psychological manifestations reflected in the…

Drivers and barriers of travel behaviors during and post COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic literature review and future agenda

The purpose of this study is to examine the drivers and barriers of travel behavior associated with tourist behavior during/post-COVID-19 pandemic to provide a knowledge base as…

Predicting travel intentions using self-disclosure, trust and intimacy: the case of Tinder users during COVID-19

This paper determines how travel intentions can be predicted using self-disclosure behaviour, trust and intimacy. This case study focuses on Tinder users who utilised the…

Assessing behavioral intention toward green hotels during COVID-19 pandemic: the moderating role of environmental concern

The study aims to investigate the consumers' behavioral intention toward green hotels. The tendency of individuals to afford green hotels is further escalating with progressing…

Environmentally responsible behaviour in outdoor recreation: the moderating impact of COVID-19 related risk perception

This study examines the mediating role of motivation on outdoor recreation on the attitude–behavior and social marketing–behavior linkages. The paper scrutinizes the moderating…

Reset or temporary break? Attitudinal change, risk perception and future travel intention in tourists experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic

There is little knowledge to date regarding the influence of the COVID-19 health crisis on tourists' intention to travel differently in the future. This paper addresses this and…

The causal factors influencing repurchase intentions of local tourists in Thailand during COVID-19 crisis

This study aims to examine the causal factors of customer motivation, trust and loyalty, influencing the level of repurchase intentions of local tourists travelling during…

Modelling the demand for educational tourism: do dynamic effect, university quality and competitor countries play a role?

This study aims to develop an educational tourism demand model, particularly in respect to dynamic effects, university quality (QU) and competitor countries. Educational tourism…

The impacts of negative problem orientation on perceived risk and travel intention in the context of COVID-19: a PLS-SEM approach

The COVID-19 pandemic, which appeared in China in late 2019, has affected the world psychologically, socially and economically in 2020. Tourism is one of the areas where the…

Lessons from COVID-19 for the future: destination crisis management, tourist behaviour and tourism industry trends

This research aims at arriving at a broad scope of the lessons learnt after two years of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak by analysing the catalyst and…

Accommodating guests during pandemic times: a case-study of the Airbnb Host Community in Aarhus, Denmark

This paper explores how Airbnb hosts' experiences with and responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) health crisis may differ according to their motivations to host and…

The future of apitourism in Iran based on critical uncertainty approach and DEMATEL/COPRAS techniques

Apitourism is a form of tourism that deals with the culture and traditions of rural communities and can be considered one of the most sustainable methods of development and…

Impact of psychological capital on mental health, readiness for organizational change, and job insecurity: hotel employees’ perspective in COVID-19

The construct of psychological capital or PsyCap (consisting of the positive psychological resources of hope, self-efficacy, optimism and resilience) has been demonstrated to…

Post-COVID-19 pandemic motivations and segmentation in coastal cities: a study in Lima, Peru

Coastal cities offer great ecological, cultural and economic benefits due to their tourism potential. The objective of this research is to (1) identify tourists' post-pandemic…

The effect of social media on travel planning process by Chinese tourists: the way forward to tourism futures

This paper investigates the usage and trust of Chinese social media in the travel planning process (pre-trip, during-trip and post-trip) of Chinese tourists.

The effect of social networks on the development of gastronomy – the way forward to the development of gastronomy tourism in Serbia

To evaluate some of the current discussions about the possible impacts of social networks on the development of gastronomy in the Republic of Serbia. There could be either…

A “new tourism cycle” on the Canary Islands: scenarios for digital transformation and resilience of small and medium tourism enterprises

This paper discusses plausible future scenarios for small and medium tourism enterprises (SMTEs) in the “sun, sea and sand” destination of the Canary Islands (Spain) and assesses…

Does countries' environmental, social and governance (ESG) risk rating influence international tourism demand? A case of the Visegrád Four

This study examines whether international tourism demand in the Visegrád countries is influenced by countries' risk rating on environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors…

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Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Regions in 2023

• All Regions
• 17 Jan 2023

After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, this year could see international tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East. Tourists are nonetheless expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate.

Based on UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.

All regions bouncing back

UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty

According to new data UNWTO, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels. Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers. The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have started to be removed only in recent months. The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023 also analyses performance by region and looks at top performers in 2022 , including several destinations which have already recovered 2019 levels.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector's wider recovery."

Chinese tourists set to return

UNWTO foresees the recovery to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges . The recent lifting of COVID-19 related travel restrictions in China , the world's largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide. In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular. However, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and COVID-19 related restrictions in the destinations.  By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.

At the same time, strong demand from the United States , backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond. Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar. 

Notable increases in international tourism receipts have been recorded across most destinations, in several cases higher than their growth in arrivals. This has been supported by the increase in average spending per trip due to longer periods of stay, the willingness by travelers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation. However, economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more cautious attitude in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.  

Furthermore, continued uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to COVID-19 also represent downside risks and could weigh on tourism's recovery in the months ahead.

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.

Related links

• Download the News Release in PDF
• UNWTO World Tourism Barometer | Volume 21 • Issue 1 • January 2023 | EXCERPT
• World Tourism Barometer (PPT version)
• UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker

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2050 - Tomorrow's Tourism

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• Language: English
• Publisher: Channel View Publications
• Copyright year: 2012
• Audience: College/higher education;
• Main content: 280
• Keywords: Tourism forecasting ; Forecasting ; Tourism futures ; Future of tourism ; Scenario planning ; Tourism planning ; Tourism economy ; Tourism policy ; 2050 ; Tourism development
• Published: June 13, 2012
• ISBN: 9781845413033

Tourism 2023: Four scenarios for the future of travel

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The Tourism 2023 project , initiated by Forum for the Future and backed by travel giants from ABTA to Thomas Cook and TUI Travel, has unveiled four possible scenarios for the development of the industry. Below are summaries of the scenarios, and links to explanatory videos on green.tv. To read up on the scenarios in detail, download the full Tourism 2023 report (pdf, 7MB).   Boom and burst A booming UK economy and impressive advances in transport technologies have fuelled a growth in travel worldwide. People travel more frequently, further and at faster speeds than ever before and there are many new reasons to go abroad. But precarious trade-offs have been needed in order to meet the UK’s emission targets, and many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. People are now asking: how long can this growth be maintained? www.green.tv/boom_and_burst   Divided disquiet Travelling overseas is an unattractive proposition. A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. Security is tight and travel is cumbersome, time-consuming and inefficient. Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small number of destinations where tight restrictions and overcrowding compound the problems. Many people have begun to think that holidaying abroad just makes the problems worse. www.green.tv/divided_disquiet   Price and privilege A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Cost is the primary concern for holidaymakers as everyone asks: how far can I get for my money? Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people simply cannot afford the experience. There have been mass redundancies across the travel industry and the affordability of overland routes has led to radical restructuring. www.green.tv/price_and_privilege   Carbon clampdown Tradable carbon quotas have been introduced for all UK households as part of the government’s bold plans to tackle climate change. The public has clamoured for tough action as environmental impacts are increasingly felt. Holidaymakers are highly sensitive to the impacts of their travel and seek ethical experiences that are within their carbon budget. Holidaying in Britain is back in fashion and has soared in popularity. www.green.tv/carbon_clampdown  

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The highest official awards for UK businesses since being established by royal warrant in 1965. Read more .

What is the future of travel?

All aboard! After the pandemic upended life and leisure as we know it, travel is roaring back. The industry is set to make a full recovery by the end of 2024, after losing 75 percent of its value in 2020. Much of this has been so-called “revenge travel,” or people embarking on international or bucket list trips that were delayed by the pandemic. But domestic travel is recovering quickly too and is set to represent 70 percent of travel spending by 2030.

Get to know and directly engage with senior McKinsey experts on travel and tourism

Margaux Constantin is a partner in McKinsey’s Dubai office, Matteo Pacca is a senior partner in the Paris office, and Vik Krishnan is a senior partner in the Bay Area office.

We’ve done a deep dive into the latest travel trends and how industry players can adjust accordingly in The state of travel and hospitality 2024 report. Check out the highlights below, as well as McKinsey’s insights on AI in travel, mass tourism, and much more.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice .

Who are today’s travelers, and what do they want?

In February and March 2024, McKinsey surveyed  more than 5,000 people in China, Germany, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Kingdom, and the United States who had taken at least one leisure trip in the past two years. Here are six highlights from the results of that survey:

• Travel is a top priority, especially for younger generations. Sixty-six percent of travelers we surveyed said they are more interested in travel now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. And millennials and Gen Zers  are traveling more and spending a higher share of their income on travel than their older counterparts.
• Younger travelers are keen to travel abroad. Gen Zers and millennials who responded to our survey are planning nearly an equal number of international and domestic trips in 2024. Older generations are planning to take twice as many domestic trips.
• Baby boomers are willing to spend if they see value. Baby boomers still account for 20 percent of overall travel spending. They are willing to spend on comforts such as nonstop flights. On the other hand, they are more willing to forego experiences to save money while traveling, unlike Gen Zers who will cut all other expense categories before they trim experiences.
• Travel is a collective story, with destinations as the backdrop. Travelers both want to hear other travelers’ stories and share their own. Ninety-two percent of younger travelers were inspired by social media in some shape or form for their last trip.
• What travelers want depends on where they’re from. Sixty-nine percent of Chinese respondents said they plan to visit a famous sight on their next trip, versus the 20 percent of European and North American travelers who said the same. Respondents living in the UAE also favor iconic destinations, as well as shopping and outdoor activities.

Learn more about McKinsey’s  Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice .

What are the top three travel industry trends today?

Travel is back, but traveler flows are shifting. McKinsey has isolated three major themes for industry stakeholders to consider as they look ahead.

• The bulk of travel spending is close to home. Seventy-five percent of travel spend is domestic. The United States is currently the world’s largest domestic travel market, but China is set to overtake it in the coming years. Stakeholders should make sure they capture the full potential of domestic travelers before turning their attention abroad.
• New markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe are growing sources of outbound tourism. Indians’ travel spending is expected to grow 9 percent per year between now and 2030; annual growth projections for Southeast Asians and Eastern Europeans are both around 7 percent.
• Unexpected destinations are finding new ways to lure travelers and establish themselves alongside enduring favorites. Rwanda, for example, has capitalized on sustainable tourism by limiting gorilla trekking permits and directing revenue toward conservation.

Looking for direct answers to other complex questions?

For a more in-depth look at these trends, check out McKinsey’s State of travel and hospitality 2024   report .

How will AI change how people travel?

In the 1950s, the introduction of the jet engine dramatically reduced travel times, changing the way people traveled forever. Now AI is upending the industry  in a similarly fundamental way. Industry players down to individual travelers are using advances in generative AI (gen AI) , machine learning , and deep learning  to reimagine what it means to plan, book, and experience travel. “It’s quite clear,” says McKinsey partner Vik Krishnan , “that gen AI significantly eases  the process of travel discovery.”

For travel companies, the task now is to rethink how they interact with customers, develop products and services, and manage operations in the age of AI. According to estimates by McKinsey Digital, companies that holistically address digital and analytics opportunities have the potential to see an earnings improvement of up to 25 percent .

McKinsey and Skift Research interviewed executives from 17 companies across five types of travel business. Here are three key findings on how travel companies can reckon with emerging technologies, drawn from the resulting report The promise of travel in the age of AI :

• Segmentation. Companies can use AI to create hyperspecific customer segments to guide how they interact with and serve customers. Segmentation can be based on a single macro characteristic (such as business versus leisure), or it can be so specific as to relate to just one customer.
• Surprise and delight. In the travel context, gen AI could take the form of digital assistants that interact with customers throughout their journeys, providing personalized trip itineraries and tailored recommendations and helping to resolve unexpected disruptions.
• Equipping workers better. AI tools can free up frontline workers’ time, allowing them to focus more on personal customer interactions. These tools can also shorten the training time for new hires and quickly upskill  the existing workforce.

AI is important, yes. But, according to Ella Alkalay Schreiber, general manager (GM) of fintech at Hopper, “The actual challenge is to understand the data, ask the right questions, read prediction versus actual, and do this in a timely manner. The actual challenge is the human thinking, the common sense .”

How is mass tourism changing travel?

More people are traveling than ever before. The most visited destinations are experiencing more concentrated flows of tourists ; 80 percent of travelers visit just 10 percent of the world’s tourist destinations. Mass tourism can encumber infrastructure, frustrate locals, and even harm the attractions that visitors came to see in the first place.

Tourism stakeholders can collectively look for better ways to handle visitor flows before they become overwhelming. Destinations should remain alert to early warning signs about high tourism concentration and work to maximize the benefits of tourism, while minimizing its negative impacts.

Destinations should remain alert to early warning signs about high tourism concentration and work to maximize the benefits of tourism, while minimizing its negative impacts.

For one thing, destinations should understand their carrying capacity of tourists—that means the specific number of visitors a destination can accommodate before harm is caused to its physical, economic, or sociocultural environment. Shutting down tourism once the carrying capacity is reached isn’t always possible—or advisable. Rather, destinations should focus on increasing carrying capacity to enable more growth.

Next, destinations should assess their readiness to handle mass tourism and choose funding sources and mechanisms that can address its impacts. Implementing permitting systems for individual attractions can help manage capacity and mitigate harm. Proceeds from tourism can be reinvested into local communities to ensure that residents are not solely responsible for repairing the wear and tear caused by visitors.

After risks and funding sources have been identified, destinations can prepare for growing tourist volumes in the following ways:

• Build and equip a tourism-ready workforce to deliver positive tourism experiences.
• Use data (gathered from governments, businesses, social media platforms, and other sources) to manage visitor flows.
• Be deliberate about which tourist segments to attract (business travelers, sports fans, party groups, et cetera), and tailor offerings and communications accordingly.
• Distribute visitor footfall across different areas, nudging tourists to visit less-trafficked locations, and during different times, promoting off-season travel.
• Be prepared for sudden, unexpected fluctuations triggered by viral social media and cultural trends.
• Preserve cultural and natural heritage. Engage locals, especially indigenous people, to find the balance between preservation and tourism.

How can the travel sector accelerate the net-zero transition?

Global warming is getting worse, and the travel sector contributes up to 11 percent of total carbon emissions. Many consumers are aware that travel is part of the problem, but they’re reticent to give up their trips: travel activity is expected to soar by 85 percent  from 2016 to 2030. Instead, they’re increasing pressure on companies in the travel sector to achieve net zero . It’s a tall order: the range of decarbonization technologies in the market is limited, and what’s available is expensive.

But decarbonization doesn’t have to be a loss-leading proposition. Here are four steps  travel companies can take toward decarbonization that can potentially create value:

• Identify and sequence decarbonization initiatives. Awareness of decarbonization levers is one thing; implementation is quite another. One useful tool to help develop an implementation plan is the marginal abatement cost curve pathway framework, which provides a cost-benefit analysis of individual decarbonization levers and phasing plans.
• Partner to accelerate decarbonization of business travel. Many organizations will reduce their business travel, which accounts for 30 percent of all travel spend. This represents an opportunity for travel companies to partner with corporate clients on decarbonization. Travel companies can support their partners in achieving their decarbonization goals by nudging corporate users to make more sustainable choices, while making reservations and providing data to help partners track their emissions.
• Close the ‘say–do’ gap among leisure travelers. One McKinsey survey indicates that 40 percent of travelers globally say they are willing to pay at least 2 percent more for carbon-neutral flights. But Skift’s latest consumer survey reveals that only 14 percent  of travelers said they actually paid more for sustainable travel options. Travel companies can help close this gap by making sustainable options more visible during booking and using behavioral science to encourage travelers to make sustainable purchases.
• Build new sustainable travel options for the future. The travel sector can proactively pioneer sustainable new products and services. Green business building will require companies to create special initiatives, led by teams empowered to experiment without the pressure of being immediately profitable.

What’s the future of air travel?

Air travel is becoming more seasonal, as leisure travel’s increasing share of the market creates more pronounced summer peaks. Airlines have responded by shifting their schedules to operate more routes at greater frequency during peak periods. But airlines have run into turbulence when adjusting to the new reality. Meeting summer demand means buying more aircraft and hiring more crew; come winter, these resources go unutilized, which lowers productivity . But when airlines don’t run more flights in the summer, they leave a lot of money on the table.

How can airlines respond to seasonality? Here are three approaches :

• Mitigate winter weakness by employing conventional pricing and revenue management techniques, as well as creative pricing approaches (including, for example, monitoring and quickly seizing on sudden travel demand spikes, such as those created by a period of unexpectedly sunny weather).
• Adapt to seasonality by moving crew training sessions to off-peak periods, encouraging employee holiday taking during trough months, and offering workers seasonal contracts. Airlines can also explore outsourcing of crew, aircraft, maintenance, and even insurance.
• Leverage summer strengths, ensuring that commercial contracts reflect summer’s higher margins.

How is the luxury travel space evolving?

Quickly. Luxury travelers are not who you might expect: many are under the age of 60 and not necessarily from Europe or the United States. Perhaps even more surprisingly, they are not all millionaires: 35 percent of luxury-travel spending is by travelers with net worths between $100,000 and $1 million. Members of this group are known as aspirational luxury travelers, and they have their own set of preferences. They might be willing to spend big on one aspect of their trip—a special meal or a single flight upgrade—but not on every travel component. They prefer visibly branded luxury and pay close attention to loyalty program points and benefits .

The luxury-hospitality space is projected to grow faster than any other segment, at 6 percent per year  through 2025. And competition for luxury hotels is intensifying too: customers now have the option of renting luxurious villas with staff, or booking nonluxury hotels with luxury accoutrements such as rainfall showerheads and mattress toppers.

Another critical evolution is that the modern consumer, in the luxury space and elsewhere, values experiences over tangible things (exhibit).

Luxury properties may see more return from investing in a culture of excellence—powered by staff who anticipate customer needs, exceed expectations, create cherished memories, and make it all feel seamless—than in marble floors and gold-plated bath fixtures. Here are a few ways luxury properties can foster a culture of excellence :

• Leaders should assume the role of chief culture officer. GMs of luxury properties should lead by example to help nurture a healthy and happy staff culture and listen and respond to staff concerns.
• Hire for personalities, not resumes. “You can teach someone how to set a table,” said one GM we interviewed, “but you can’t teach a positive disposition.”
• Celebrate and reward employees. Best-in-class service is about treating customers with generosity and care. Leaders in the service sector can model this behavior by treating employees similarly.
• Create a truly distinctive customer experience . McKinsey research has shown that the top factor influencing customer loyalty in the lodging sector is “an experience worth paying more for”—not the product. Train staff to focus on tiny details as well as major needs to deliver true personalization.

What’s the latest in travel loyalty programs?

Loyalty programs are big business . They’ve evolved past being simply ways to boost sales or strengthen customer relationships; now, for many travel companies, they are profit centers in their own right. One major development was that travel companies realized they could sell loyalty points in bulk to corporate partners, who in turn offered the points to their customers as rewards. In 2019, United’s MileagePlus loyalty program sold $3.8 billion worth of miles to third parties, which accounted for 12 percent of the airline’s total revenue for that year. In 2022, American Airlines’ loyalty program brought in $3.1 billion in revenue, and Marriott’s brought in $2.7 billion.

But as this transition has happened, travel players have shifted focus away from the original purpose of these programs. Travel companies are seeing these loyalty programs primarily as revenue generators, rather than ways to improve customer experiences . As a result, loyalty program members have become increasingly disloyal. Recent loyalty surveys conducted by McKinsey revealed a steep decline in the likelihood that a customer would recommend airline, hotel, and cruise line loyalty programs to a friend. The same surveys also found that airline loyalty programs are driving fewer customer behavior changes than they used to.

So how can travel brands win customers’ loyalty back? Here are three steps to consider:

• Put experience at the core of loyalty programs. According to our 2023 McKinsey Travel Loyalty Survey , American respondents said they feel more loyal to Amazon than to the top six travel players combined, despite the absence of any traditional loyalty program. One of the reasons for Amazon’s success may be the frictionless experience it provides customers. Companies should strive to design loyalty programs around experiential benefits that make travelers feel special and seamlessly integrate customer experiences between desktop, mobile, and physical locations.
• Use data to offer personalization  to members. Travel brands have had access to customer data for a long time. But many have yet to deploy it for maximum value. Companies can use personalization to tailor both experiences and offers for loyalty members; our research has shown that 78 percent  of consumers are more likely to make a repeat purchase when offered a personalized experience.
• Rethink partnerships. Traditionally, travel companies have partnered with banks to offer cobranded credit cards. But many credit card brands now offer their own, self-branded travel rewards ecosystems. These types of partnerships may have diminishing returns in the future. When rethinking partnerships, travel brands should seek to build richer connections with customers, while boosting engagement. Uber’s partnership with Marriott, for example, gives users the option to link the brands’ loyalty programs, tapping into two large customer bases and providing more convenient travel experiences.

In a changing travel ecosystem, travel brands will need to ask themselves some hard questions if they want to earn back their customers’ loyalty.

Learn more about McKinsey’s Travel, Logistics, and Infrastructure Practice . And check out travel-related job opportunities if you’re interested in working at McKinsey.

Articles referenced include:

• “ Updating perceptions about today’s luxury traveler ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ The way we travel now ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ Destination readiness: Preparing for the tourist flows of tomorrow ,” May 29, 2024, Caroline Tufft , Margaux Constantin , Matteo Pacca , and Ryan Mann
• “ How the world’s best hotels deliver exceptional customer experience ,” March 18, 2024, Ryan Mann , Ellen Scully, Matthew Straus, and Jillian Tellez Holub
• “ How airlines can handle busier summers—and comparatively quiet winters ,” January 8, 2024, Jaap Bouwer, Ludwig Hausmann , Nina Lind , Christophe Verstreken, and Stavros Xanthopoulos
• “ Travel invented loyalty as we know it. Now it’s time for reinvention. ,” November 15, 2023, Lidiya Chapple, Clay Cowan, Ellen Scully, and Jillian Tellez Holub
• “ What AI means for travel—now and in the future ,” November 2, 2023, Alex Cosmas  and Vik Krishnan
• “ The promise of travel in the age of AI ,” September 27, 2023, Susann Almasi, Alex Cosmas , Sam Cowan, and Ben Ellencweig
• “ The future of tourism: Bridging the labor gap enhancing customer experience ,” August 1, 2023, Urs Binggeli, Zi Chen, Steffen Köpke, and Jackey Yu
• “ Hotels in the 2030s: Perspectives from Accor’s C-suite ,” July 27, 2023, Aurélia Bettati
• “ Tourism in the metaverse: Can travel go virtual? ,” May 4, 2023, Margaux Constantin , Giuseppe Genovese, Kashiff Munawar, and Rebecca Stone
• “ Three innovations to solve hotel staffing shortages ,” April 3, 2023, Ryan Mann , Esteban Ramirez, and Matthew Straus
• “ Accelerating the transition to net-zero travel ,” September 20, 2022, Danielle Bozarth , Olivier Cheret, Vik Krishnan , Mackenzie Murphy, and Jules Seeley
• “ The six secrets of profitable airlines ,” June 28, 2022, Jaap Bouwer, Alex Dichter , Vik Krishnan , and Steve Saxon
• “ How to ‘ACE’ hospitality recruitment ,” June 23, 2022, Margaux Constantin , Steffen Köpke, and Joost Krämer
• “ Opportunities for industry leaders as new travelers take to the skies ,” April 5, 2022, Mishal Ahmad, Frederik Franz, Tomas Nauclér, and Daniel Riefer
• “ Rebooting customer experience to bring back the magic of travel ,” September 21, 2021, Vik Krishnan , Kevin Neher, Maurice Obeid , Ellen Scully, and Jules Seeley

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Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2024: Global Trends

This report analyses the economic impact and recovery of the Travel & Tourism sector globally and regionally in 2023 and provides projections for 2024 and beyond. It also contains discussions of some emerging themes in the sector. Lastly, the report provides league tables that rank economies based on various Travel & Tourism indicators.

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Report details

The report highlights the Travel & Tourism sector’s recovery in 2023 at the global level and how it varied across each region and economy. It also provides a forecast for the sector in 2024 and the decade ahead, and lists some opportunities and challenges. Travel & Tourism is constantly undergoing changes, and the report focuses on the following emerging themes:

• Business travel’s comeback
• Outbound travel: emerging source markets
• Diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging (DEIB)
• Artificial intelligence
• Sustainable travel

Lastly, the report contains league tables that rank the top 20 economies globally based on the following Travel & Tourism indicators:

• Travel & Tourism’s total contribution to GDP (2023, 2024, and 2034)
• Travel & Tourism’s total contribution to employment (2023, 2024, and 2034)
• Domestic visitor spending (2023 and 2024)
• International visitor spending (2023 and 2024)
• Travel & Tourism capital investment (2023 and 2024)

For further explanation of the methodology and sources behind this Economic Impact Research, please refer to these two supporting papers: ' Methodology ' and ' Data Sources and Estimation Techniques '.

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Other Oceanic States Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Research

Discover the direct and total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to Other Oceanic States in this comprehensive report.

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Discover the direct and total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to Guinea in this comprehensive report.

Kiribati Travel & Tourism Economic Impact Research

Discover the direct and total economic contribution that the Travel & Tourism sector brings to Kiribati in this comprehensive report.

• Never-Ending Tourism: Tourism Experience Scenarios for 2030

Along with recent technological developments, the tourism industry is standing on the verge of a new era. Particularly the rise of the Metaverse has stirred up new opportunities as this new type of reality soon will have the ability to mentally teleport tourists to new places, regardless of time, financial resources and physical abilities. This development is also known as ‘Never-Ending Tourism’ and this study explores how the future of tourism may look in the world of the metaverse.

The Rise of Information and Communication Technologies

Over the course of the last decade, Information and Communication Technologies – also known as ICTs – have been developing at a high pace. We witnessed Web 1.0 in the 90s when people accessed the Internet for the first time, but where no interaction was possible, followed by Web 2.0 where socials became more popular on centralised platforms, such as Facebook or Instagram. Present day, Web 3.0 has emerged, which differs from the previous versions as it allows for a new online space for people to connect, meet and in the future even can go on holidays. Holidays? You may wonder – but indeed, our future holidays may look very different from what we have known. This is exactly what sparked interest in writing this research paper. After all – How will the future of tourism look in a world that takes place both online and offline?

Connecting the Metaverse to the Experience Economy

While getting a better understanding of new technological developments, it is important to learn how the customer experience could be designed for. In the ‘Experience Economy’ in which our society finds itself, consumers seek no longer ‘just’ products and services, but those that can create memorable experiences. In the context of travel, tourism, hospitality and heritage, this means new opportunities in shaping their offer to customers. In fact, these new opportunities do not limit themselves to the physical world. More and more, a shift from physical to virtual or mixed offers is becoming a popular way to create customer experiences.

For instance, the Tourism Transition Pathway , a document that sets out the tourism agenda of Europe for 2030 by the European Commission , declared the digitalisation of travel and heritage experiences as a key pillar for tomorrow’s tourism. Therefore, the present research paper aimed to conceptualise integrated virtual experiences, before, during and after travel. The following research questions guided the study:

• What does never-ending tourism look like?
• What are possible scenarios for a never-ending tourism future in 2030?

Methodology

For this study, an exploratory qualitative research study was used. Through 15 online in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, data were collected. The data analysis procedure took place in multiple phases. Following this procedure, three scenarios on the topic of never-ending tourism came forward including: 1) Never-ending support “The digital companion”, 2) Never-ending balance “The digital escape”, and 3) Never-ending relationship “The digital connection”. Each of the scenarios are briefly summarised below.

Scenario 1: Never-Ending Support “THE Digital Companion”

The first scenario talks about two friends who go on holiday together twice a year. Through their AR-enhanced glasses, a virtual assistant shows them their next destination: Paris, the city of lights. In addition, the assistant presents the latest Netflix series that was shot in Paris and trendy outfits suitable for the destination in the women’s social media feed. In this way, the friends already get more excited about their trip. After the assistant matched the dates with the women’s calendars, the cheapest connections are booked. They only need to check in at the train station through face recognition before their journey can start. While there, the assistant guides them through the city via AR-augmented features related to heritage, art and history. After their trip, the assistant creates an after-movie for the friends’ social media pages, and whenever the friends feel nostalgic for Paris, they can step into the VR space created for them.

Scenario 2: Never-Ending Balance “The Digital Escape”

The second scenario is about Laura, a family-woman who works remotely from home and is used to working with a virtual assistant. Together with her family, she is setting off on a holiday trip – for which everyone leaves their devices behind to really detox from technology. As physical holidays have become increasingly more expensive, it is a luxury that Laura’s family can afford to go on a trip outside of their online world. This is the time to reconnect with the family and take care of everyone’s physical and mental health. Her children know the area well, as they have already discovered the digital twin of the destination while still being at home. After the trip, everyone goes back into their routine with new and refreshed ideas ‘taken’ from the offline world.

Scenario 3: Never-Ending Relationship “The Digital Connection”

The last scenario is about a group of friends who have gotten to know each other through an online Playstation game. As they are living across Europe, they have never met each other in person – yet after spending a lot of time together, they decided to meet physically for the first time. However, when they arrive and meet for the first time, it is not the same as meeting in the ‘safe’ online space. This is because everyone looks different from the VR characters they created in the game. All the multisensory impressions they experience in person are not available in the VR world in which they usually meet. However, even though they had not met in person before, there is this particular feeling of familiarity and soon the friends are more at ease. After the meeting, everyone comes back with their newly made memories and implements their digital memorabilia into their VR world. They are already looking forward to meeting again.

The aim of the study was to explore the concept of ‘never-ending tourism’ and create potential future tourism scenarios for 2030. The study contributes to the rise of the metaverse and its impact on tourism. The results show that the tourism industry has the power to integrate physical and virtual realms of a place, attraction or destination into a continuous or ‘never-ending’ engagement and experience. Based on the three scenarios, the intensity of ICT application may differ, although all scenarios indicated that highly developed virtual offers, solutions and virtual spaces will be a common extension of the current physical travel.

In the first scenario, “The digital companion” the presence of technology in all areas of life is identified. In the second scenario, “The digital escape”, technology also plays an important part in daily life, while physical travel is seen as a luxury experience in which people can escape from technology for a change. In the third and last scenario “The digital connection”, a future 2030 reality is painted, where social connections are created through virtual spaces. Physical meetings and travel, therefore, become an add-on to the initial experience that is taking place in the virtual space.

It is a new reality of imagination to teleport yourself mentally into a new world, only seen through books and movies today. Through the metaverse, this image could become reality. The digital twin reconstruction of certain real-world locations will allow travellers to visit a variety of places and engage with their history, local people, religions and traditions.

Do you already know where your first metaverse travel would take you? The future is here – see you in the metaverse!

Prodinger, B., Neuhofer, B. (2023). Never-Ending Tourism: Tourism Experience Scenarios for 2030. In: Ferrer-Rosell, B., Massimo, D., Berezina, K. (eds) Information and Communication Technologies in Tourism 2023. ENTER 2023. Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25752-0_31

Read the full article here – Free Open Access:

Springer Link

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Here's what the Boeing strike might mean for flyers

Boeing workers went on strike Friday, the latest disturbance in what has proven a devastating year for the American aircraft manufacturer .

But it is not clear whether the labor stoppage will have an impact for the flying public, although there are concerns about a potential effect on air travel next summer.

U.S. carriers that rely heavily on Boeing planes include Southwest, United and Alaska Airlines .

In a statement, Southwest said its operations were unlikely to be affected in the short-term by any production delays Boeing may end up suffering.

“Earlier this year, Southwest Airlines took steps to address potential delivery disruptions," the carrier said. "As a result, we currently have the fleet needed to fulfill our upcoming schedules. We remain in close communication with Boeing.”

Southwest exclusively uses Boeing 737s — planes made made in Renton, Washington, one of the sites now on strike by members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. Southwest had sharply brought down its delivery target for Boeing aircraft earlier this year.

A United spokesperson said the carrier was working with Boeing to understand what the impact to the airline's delivery schedule might be.

A spokesperson for Alaska Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Airlines are in charge of maintaining aircraft once they come into possession of them, and crews won't sign off on allowing a plane to fly if it is deemed not airworthy, said Henry Harteveldt, founder and president of Atmosphere Research Group, an airline industry consultancy.

"There will probably be very little direct impact on consumers as a result of the Boeing strike," Harteveldt told NBC News.

Estimates of how long the strike could last vary widely. The previous Boeing machinists strike, in 2008, lasted nearly two months; however, in a note to clients, Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein said the latest one could prove as short as a week.

That's in part because Boeing is in an especially weak position, he noted: Its standing has been seriously hurt in the wake of the mid-air door-panel blowout in January that prompted a nationwide grounding, federal investigations, and ultimately the ouster of Boeing’s leadership. The FAA continues to have federal monitors of Boeing's production in place. The company's stock, which is a component of the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average , is down about 40% this year.

Newly installed CEO Kelly Ortberg already took a conciliatory tone with Boeing workers in the run-up to the strike, Epstein said.

“We see it likely Boeing would have to make further concessions and move closer to the IAM’s initial proposal,” Epstein wrote.

In a statement, Boeing acknowledged that members of the International Association of Machinists had deemed its offer "not acceptable."

“We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”

Company executives have warned that the strike could “jeopardize” its recovery from recent scandals and quality problems.

A White House official said the Biden Administration is in touch with Boeing and the machinists.

"We encourage them to negotiate in good faith — toward an agreement that gives employees the benefits they deserve and makes the company stronger,” the official said.

The strike was largely expected, despite a push by union leaders to broker a last-minute deal. Rank-and-file members of the 33,000-strong workforce that constitute the striking group have said recent layoffs, a decision to shift some production to Boeing's non-union facility in South Carolina, and a push for even stronger compensation and protections had all pushed workers toward striking. Boeing had promised to build its next commercial airplane in the Seattle area under the tentative agreement.

Boeing appeared to have already made contingency plans in the run-up to the strike vote: Reuters reported on Tuesday that the company told suppliers it was delaying a key production milestone for its 737 MAX by six months.

Should the strike drag on, major carriers may not be able to meet capacity demands for next year's summer travel season, Harteveldt said.

"If this strike drags out, depending on how many aircraft can [Boeing} can deliver, airlines may find themselves with far fewer new planes by next summer's season, which is peak season — and that could definitely impact the number of flights and destinations available," he said.

Rob Wile is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist covering breaking business stories for NBCNews.com.

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OPINION: Eagle River’s roads: a cyclist’s nightmare and a vision for the future

Traffic passes in Eagle River's business district on January 27, 2021. (Marc Lester / ADN)

As an avid cyclist and Eagle River resident, I’ve experienced firsthand the dangers and frustrations of navigating our community’s streets on two wheels. From near-misses on sidewalks to blatant threats from aggressive drivers, it’s clear that our roads are failing to protect vulnerable users. The recent surge in vehicle vs. pedestrian collisions in our community underscores the urgent need for change.

My initial foray into cycling involved navigating Eagle River’s sidewalks, a decision prompted by the lack of safe bike lanes. However, this proved to be a dangerous gamble. The sidewalks, often obstructed by overgrown greenery, create blind spots for drivers entering and exiting driveways. On multiple occasions, I found myself narrowly avoiding collisions with cars speeding onto the sidewalk, their drivers seemingly oblivious to my presence.

The acquisition of a Class 3 e-bike, capable of reaching speeds of 25 mph, offered a glimmer of hope. Now able to keep pace with traffic, I felt safer and more empowered on my daily commute to the Eagle River Transit Center. However, this newfound sense of security was short-lived.

On six separate occasions, I’ve been subjected to deliberate intimidation and threats from drivers, primarily in trucks. They’ve sped past me at alarmingly close distances, nearly clipping my handlebars. In some instances, they’ve shouted obscenities or attempted to justify their actions at intersections, claiming a misguided sense of entitlement to the road. The hostility and aggression I’ve encountered highlight a disturbing lack of respect for cyclists and a disregard for their safety.

These experiences are not unique to me. The 2007 Chugiak-Eagle River Long-Range Transportation Plan, a document that has guided transportation planning in our community for years, acknowledged the need for a balanced transportation system that supports multiple modes of travel while enhancing safety and minimizing environmental impacts. The plan was developed with extensive community input, including the participation of a citizen advisory committee representing various stakeholders and community councils. It lays out a vision for the future that includes improvements to non-motorized infrastructure, recognizing the importance of providing safe and accessible options for cyclists and pedestrians.

However, progress has been slow. The 2007 Long-Range Transportation Plan highlighted the need for improvements to sidewalks, trails, and bicycle facilities, yet many of these recommendations remain unfulfilled. The plan also called for studies to address congestion and improve circulation in the Eagle River Central Business District and residential core, but these studies have yet to be conducted.

We cannot continue to prioritize the convenience of motorists at the expense of the safety of cyclists and pedestrians. Eagle River needs to invest in infrastructure that prioritizes the safety of all road users. This includes dedicated bike lanes, clearly marked crosswalks, and traffic calming measures, particularly on high-traffic roads like Old Glenn Highway. We must also cultivate a culture of respect and responsibility on our roads, where all users feel safe and valued. Implementing educational campaigns and stricter enforcement of traffic laws can help foster a more inclusive and considerate driving environment.

The 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan, with its long-term plans to rehabilitate Old Glenn Highway, offers a glimmer of hope. However, we need to see immediate action to address the current dangers faced by cyclists and pedestrians. It’s time for Eagle River to transform its streets from a cyclist’s nightmare into a haven for all. Let’s work together to build a community where everyone, regardless of their mode of transportation, can travel safely and confidently.

Let’s make Eagle River a place where cycling is not just possible but enjoyable, where sidewalks are safe havens, and where drivers respect the rights and lives of all who share the road. The 2007 Long-Range Transportation Plan and the 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan provide a roadmap for the future, but we need to act now to ensure the safety of our residents today.

Kyle Mielke is a cyclist and an Eagle River homeowner deeply invested in the community’s well-being. He currently serves on the Public Transit Advisory Board and is a former member of the Eagle River Community Council.

The views expressed here are the writer’s and are not necessarily endorsed by the Anchorage Daily News, which welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)adn.com . Send submissions shorter than 200 words to [email protected] or click here to submit via any web browser . Read our full guidelines for letters and commentaries here .

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Tracking Tropical Depression Francine

By Matthew Bloch ,  William B. Davis ,  Madison Dong ,  Judson Jones ,  John Keefe and Bea Malsky

Francine was a tropical depression over Mississippi Thursday morning Central time, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory .

The tropical depression had sustained wind speeds of 35 miles per hour. Read our coverage here .

Precipitation intensity

Tracking power outages

Where has it rained.

Tropical cyclones typically drop large amounts of rain along and near the storm's path. The slower and more significant the storm’s size, the higher the likelihood of higher rainfall totals. Some storms can drop well over 30 inches of rainfall, like when Hurricane Harvey dropped over 60 inches near Nederland, Texas, in 2017.

What does the storm look like from above?

Satellite imagery can help determine the strength, size and cohesion of a storm. The stronger a storm becomes, the more likely an eye will form in the center. When the eye looks symmetrical, that often means the storm is not encountering anything to weaken it.

Francine is the sixth named storm to form in the Atlantic in 2024.

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 17 to 25 named storms this year, an above-normal amount .

This season follows an overly active year, with 20 named storms — including an early storm later given the official name of “Unnamed.” It was the eighth year in a row to surpass the average of 14 named storms. Only one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall in the United States.

Typically, the El Niño pattern that was in force last season would have suppressed hurricanes and reduced the number of storms in a season. But in 2023, the warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic blunted El Niño’s usual effect of thwarting storms.

The warm ocean temperatures that fueled last year’s season returned even warmer at the start of this season, raising forecasters’ confidence that there would be more storms this year. The heightened sea surface temperatures could also strengthen storms more rapidly than usual.

To make matters worse, the El Niño pattern present last year is also diminishing, most likely creating a more suitable atmosphere for storms to form and intensify.

Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and, in the Atlantic, a strong El Niño increases the amount of wind shear — a change in wind speed and/or direction with height — which disrupts a storm's ability to coalesce. Without El Niño this year, clouds are more likely to tower to the tall heights needed to sustain a powerful cyclone.

Sources and notes

Tracking map Tracking data is from the National Hurricane Center. The map shows probabilities of at least 5 percent. The forecast is for up to five days, with that time span starting up to three hours before the reported time that the storm reaches its latest location. Wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.

Wind arrivals table Arrival times are generated from a New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographic locations use data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth. Time zones are based on Google. The table shows predicted arrival times of sustained, damaging winds of 58 m.p.h. or more for select cities with a chance of such winds reaching them. If damaging winds reach a location, there is no more than a 10 percent chance that they will arrive before the “earliest reasonable” time and a 50 percent chance they will arrive before the “most likely” time.

Radar map Radar imagery is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Iowa State University. These mosaics are generated by combining individual radar stations that comprise the NEXRAD network.

Storm surge map Storm surge data is from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts only include the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The actual areas that could become flooded may differ from the areas shown on this map. This map accounts for tides, but not waves and not flooding caused by rainfall. The map also includes intertidal areas, which routinely flood during typical high tides.

Satellite map Imagery is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Japanese Meteorological Agency via the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Precipitation map Data for multi-day forecasts or observed rainfall totals are from the National Weather Service. The 1-day forecast is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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