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Is flying safer than driving?

There have been effectively zero deaths per 100 million passenger miles traveled by air in the US each year from 2002 to 2020.

Published Tue, December 19, 2023 by the USAFacts Team

Air travel [1] is safer than driving on highways in the US, according to data from the US Department of Transportation (DoT). Passenger injuries and fatalities in air travel were significantly lower than in passenger cars and trucks for each year between 2002 and 2020. Flying is also safer than riding subways [2] , trains [3] , buses [4] , and motorcycles.

What is the safest way to travel?

Air travel is the safest form of transit in the US. Injury and death rates in air travel in the US have been near zero each year since 2002, and the number of aviation accidents declined from 2000 to 2021.

Comparing passenger injuries

From 2002 to 2020, there were 614 total serious injuries in US air travel , an average of 32 injuries per year. In that same time, 44 million people were injured in passenger cars and trucks on US highways — that’s approximately 2.3 million per year.

The average annual injury rate for air travel was .01 injuries per 100 million passenger miles traveled, compared with 48 injuries for the same distance traveled in cars and trucks.

Comparing passenger deaths

From 2002 to 2020, there were 755 deaths during air travel in the US on domestic carriers. Nearly 75% of these deaths occurred in accidents involving on-demand air taxis, smaller aircraft of 30 seats or fewer that operate on an on-demand basis. Passenger car and truck accidents logged 498,016 deaths on US highways over that same time frame, an average of 26,211 fatalities per year.

Effectively, there have been zero deaths per 100 million passenger air travel miles each year from 2002 to 2020. The average annual fatality rate over that time was .01 deaths per 100 million miles traveled. The death rate for passenger cars and trucks on US highways — though it declined from 0.7 deaths per 100 million passenger miles in 2002 to 0.5 deaths in 2020 — remains significantly higher.

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Injuries and deaths for different modes of transportation

The DoT records injuries and fatalities for all modes of passenger transportation, including motorcycles, railroads, subways and light rail systems, and buses. Each of those modes had higher injury and fatality rates than air travel in the US in 2019.

How safe is highway driving?

About 2.3 million people were injured on US highways in 2020. More than half (54%) of those injuries occurred in passenger cars, while 34% were in light trucks, 4% on motorcycles, and 2% were in large trucks. The remainder were pedestrians, bicyclists, or occupants of an unknown vehicle.

There were also 30,250 vehicle-occupant fatalities on highways in 2020: 45% of those happened in passenger cars, 34% in light trucks, and 18% on motorcycles. The remainder were occupants of large trucks. In addition to the 30,250 vehicle passenger deaths on highways, there were also 6,516 pedestrian deaths and 938 bicyclist deaths.

Injury rates for passenger vehicles and trucks have gradually declined, from more than 54 injuries per 100 million passenger miles in 2016 to just under 43 in 2021.

How safe is public transit?

US public transit systems accounted for 7,209 passenger injuries and 29 fatalities in 2022, the most recent year of available DoT data. Public transit includes buses, heavy rail (including subways), light rail, monorails, ferries, and other modes of transportation operated by public transit operators.

Buses in particular accounted for 82% of passenger injuries from public transit in 2022 and 34% of transit passenger deaths.

How safe is passenger railroad travel?

Passenger rail includes commuter rail and Amtrak but not local subway systems and streetcars. According to preliminary 2022 data, there were 677 passenger injuries and seven passenger fatalities on passenger railroad services, according to the DoT.

Railroad passenger injuries reached a recent high of 1,812 in 2016 and fell into the triple digits during 2020 (401 injuries), 2021 (525), and 2022 (677). Over the same period, the number of railroad miles traveled fell 66%.

How safe is air travel?

In 2019, US air carriers reported 31 serious injuries and 38 fatalities, according to the DoT. In 2020, the latest year on record, there were 17 injuries and 26 deaths; as noted, most of these were in on-demand air taxis. (Between 2019 and 2020, the number of air passenger miles traveled also fell, by nearly 60%.)

Forty percent of all air travel deaths in this century happened in 2001, the year of the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Explore more data on US transportation and infrastructure , see how many pedestrians and cyclists are killed by cars , and get the facts directly in your inbox by subscribing to our weekly newsletter .

Where does this data come from, and what is it missing?

The Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics compiles annual data on fatalities and injuries for each mode of transportation.

Different modes of transportation have slightly different definitions of injuries. Passenger vehicle data in this analysis only includes injuries or fatalities that happen on highways and injuries that require medical attention away from the crash scene. Department of Transportation passenger vehicle data does not include non-highway incidents and injuries addressed at the scene of an incident and does not include non-passenger injuries or fatalities, such as pedestrians hit by cars or transit vehicles. Air travel data does not distinguish between passengers and non-passengers, like pilots and crew, and only records injuries that require hospitalization for at least 48 hours or involve serious fractures, tissue damage, or burns.

Air travel includes all scheduled flights by US domestic airlines, scheduled commuter flights, and on-demand air taxi services.

Subways are included in data for rail transit, which includes heavy rail (like subway systems), light rail, streetcars, and hybrid rail. It does not include commuter rail like Amtrak which is captured separately.

The term "trains" is used interchangeably with "railroads" throughout. Railroads include commuter rail and Amtrak.

Bus transit includes commuter bus, motor bus, rapid bus, and trolley bus. It does not include school buses or intercity buses like Greyhound.

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Safety record of u.s. air carriers.

The U.S. government began publishing statistics on the safety of commercial aviation in 1927. While 1978 legislation eliminated economic regulation of the U.S. airline industry, it left safety regulation very much in place. The following table depicts the safety record of U.S. airlines performing scheduled services worldwide, from 2000 to present, as recorded by NTSB.

Safety Record of U.S. Air Carriers (Part 121 Scheduled Service): 2000 to Present

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Source: NTSB Aviation Accident Statistics, Table 6. Fatal Accident Rate excludes incidents resulting from illegal acts, consistent with NTSB practice.

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Expert Commentary

Transportation safety over time: Cars, planes, trains, walking, cycling

2013 study by Northwestern University on the relative fatality risk of a broad range of motorized and non-motorized transportation modes in the United States.

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License .

by Leighton Walter Kille, The Journalist's Resource October 5, 2014

This <a target="_blank" href="https://journalistsresource.org/economics/comparing-fatality-risks-united-states-transportation-across-modes-time/">article</a> first appeared on <a target="_blank" href="https://journalistsresource.org">The Journalist's Resource</a> and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.<img src="https://journalistsresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/cropped-jr-favicon-150x150.png" style="width:1em;height:1em;margin-left:10px;">

In May 2013 the National Highway Traffic Safety Adminstration released estimates of U.S. traffic fatalities for 2012, and the results were troubling: 34,080 people died in motor-vehicles crashes that year, an increase of 5.3% over 2011’s total and a reversal of the long-term downward trends. The meaning of the one-year shift is unclear and there is a great deal of nuance within all the numbers, but the litany of deaths remains sobering — an average of more than 93 every day.

The lowest year in recent history was 2011, when 32,367 people died on U.S. roads and highways. As horrifying as that number is, it actually constitutes progress: In 1994, 40,716 died on the roads — 26% more, and nearly 112 deaths per day. Beyond the absolute numbers, progress has been made in overall mortality rates : 1.1 per 100 million vehicle miles travelled in 2011 (it rose to 1.16 in 2012). Much of this is due to advances in vehicle safety — air bags, anti-lock brakes and increased crashworthiness. But technology can have its drawbacks as well: Since 1980 the average horsepower of U.S. cars more than doubled , and speed limits have risen significantly, greatly increasing the potential for damage, loss of life and injuries. Motorcycling is also on the rise, and fatality rates have increased in lockstep with its popularity and inherent riskiness.

A 2013 study in Research in Transportation Economics , “Comparing the Fatality Risks in United States Transportation Across Modes and Over Time,” looks at the historical trends to paint a fuller picture of where this all stands. The researcher, Ian Savage of Northwestern University, prefaces his findings with an important caveat on measures of “safety”:

The focus on fatalities is primarily motivated by a greater confidence that this measure of safety is reported more consistently and accurately across modes and time. In general, cross-sectional and time-series comparisons in fatalities are also indicative of differences in non-fatal injuries, illnesses, and property damage. Albeit that the correlation is not perfect. In particular, fatalities are a poor measure of some of the environmental risks associated with the transportation of oil products and hazardous materials. In addition many of the advances in safety in recent decades have focused on “crashworthiness” whereby design changes have been made to increase the survivability of crashes and mitigate the severity of injuries. Consequently it is possible that a reduction in fatalities may be partly compensated for by an increase in the number of injuries.

Savage’s analysis involved two datasets: The first involved the relative risk of different travel modes — cars, buses, planes, trains, and more — from 2000 to 2009; the second was a time-series analysis for each mode from 1975 to 2010. The findings of the study include:

• Between 2000 and 2009, on average 43,239 people in the United States died each year in transportation-related incidents. Based on the average number of U.S. residents over that period, the annual risk of dying in a transportation-related accident is 1 in 6,800.
• Transportation-related fatalities constituted just under 2% of the 2.43 million deaths per year from all causes in the United States, or 1 in 56. Transportation was the biggest source of all “unintentional injury deaths” (38%) — those not caused by old age, disease, suicide or homicide.
• Whatever the vehicle, highways are by far the most common place of transportation fatalities in the United States: 94%. If deaths that take place at rail-highway grade crossings are included, the total is even higher, at just over 95%.
• Despite significant fatality rates for highway travel, overall transportation is becoming less dangerous: “The rate in 2010 is just one-third of that in 1975 (1.11 versus 3.35 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles). The 1980s and early 1990s were the era of the greatest rate of improvement.”

Cars, trucks and SUVs

• Nearly three-quarters of people who died in highway crashes (74%) were occupants of automobiles and light trucks. More than half (55%) occurred in single-vehicle incidents without a prior collision, including roll-overs; vehicles striking fixed objects, animals or debris; or catching fire.
• The proportion of fatal single-vehicle crashes is much higher for light trucks (66%) than it is for automobiles (47%). Light trucks — including minivans, pickups and SUVs — often have a relatively higher center of gravity and thus a greater propensity to roll over.
• Drivers or passengers in cars or light trucks faced a fatality risk of 7.3 per billion passenger-miles: “A person who was in a motor vehicle for 30 miles every day for a year faced a fatality risk of about 1 in 12,500. Relative to mainline trains, buses and commercial aviation the risk was 17, 67, and 112 times greater, respectively.”
• Because private individuals operate the vast majority of motor vehicles, their risk is highly dependent on personal behavior: “Unlike the commercial modes where passengers are victimized randomly, the risk to individual highway users varies considerably depending on age, alcohol consumption and the type of road used.” (See highway risk factors below.)
• “One might argue that transportation equipment, and in particular the motor vehicle, must be the most dangerous machines that we interact with on a daily basis,” the researcher states. “The annual toll in motor vehicle crashes exceeds the deaths resulting from the next most dangerous mechanical device, firearms, by about 40%.”

Motorcycles

• Nearly 10% of all highway fatalities — one in ten — were motorcyclists: “When a motorcycle is involved in a collision with another vehicle, the motorcyclist invariably receives more serious injuries. The ratio of fatalities in two-vehicle collisions was 70 motorcyclist fatalities for each fatal injury sustained by the occupant of the other vehicle.”
• Over the period studied, motorcycles became increasingly popular, with use rising as much as 75%. As a consequence, fatalities have increased proportionally. This trend has been exacerbated by the “general rollback in the number of states requiring motorcycle riders to wear helmets.” ( Earlier research has indicated that when a state repeals or weakens a helmet-use law, motorcyclist fatalities typically rise nearly 40%.)
• Motorcycles had a fatality rate of 212 per billion passenger miles, by far the highest of all modes: “A motorcyclist who traveled 15 miles every day for a year, had an astonishing 1 in 860 chance of dying — 29 times the risk for automobiles and light trucks.”

Highway risk factors

• Urban roads are far safer than those in rural areas: “Based on data from 2009, highways in rural areas have a fatality risk that is 2.7 times greater than that in urban areas. In general the lower average speeds, greater provision of lighting, greater deployment of traffic control devices and fewer curves in urban areas more than compensate for factors such as the greater number of intersections and the presence of pedestrians.”
• Gender and youth play are significant factors in fatality risk: Males are three times more likely to die in a road accident than females, while people between the ages of 18 and 29 are at a 50% to 90% greater risk.
• Seat-belt use is a significant factor: Half of vehicle occupants who die in automobiles and light truck incidents (49%) were not wearing seat belts or using child safety seats.
• Alcohol played a role in approximately a third of all highway fatalities, with at least one of the involved parties having a blood-alcohol level above 0.8 grams per deciliter.
• Related research has shown that drivers using cell phones show greater impairment than drunk drivers, and hands-free systems offered no improvement over handheld devices. Cell-phone conversations have a more profound effect on driver performance than other forms of in-car distraction, including talking to passengers and listening to the radio.
• Mainline railroads claimed an average of 876 lives a year, the majority of which occur during collisions with highway users and pedestrians. The largest number of deaths, 490, involve people and vehicles not at grade crossings, and a significant portion of those deaths, approximately 85 to 110, were possibly suicides.
• The balance of rail-related deaths involve motorists at grade crossings (281), pedestrians at grade crossings (68) employees and contractors working on the tracks (26). Per year on average, only seven passengers traveling on mainline trains die.
• The overall fatality rate for long-haul train service is 0.43 per billion passenger miles. Excluding pedestrians and others not on trains — 64% of total fatalities assigned to railroads — the fatality rate is approximately 0.15 per billion passenger miles.
• Vehicles with a capacity of 10 passengers or more represented just 0.1% of the total fatalities. On average, there were approximately 40 fatalities per year, with drivers and other bus-company employees representing 25% of lives lost.
• Scheduled and charter service accounted for 44% of total bus fatalities . The balance of deaths occurred with school buses (23%), urban transit (11%) and a variety of private shuttles, church buses and other services (22%).
• The fatality rate per billion passenger-miles for buses is relatively low, 0.11. However, this is still 65% greater than that for aviation, and doesn’t include victims of crime. (Also, see statistics on “curbside” bus services. )
• The majority of aviation fatalities that occur each year (85%) involved private aircraft (known as “general aviation”). On average, 549 people die each year in activities such as recreational flying (41% of flight hours), business travel (24%), and instruction (17%).
• Excluding acts of suicide and terrorism, commercial aviation was the safest mode of travel in the United States, with 0.07 fatalities per billion passenger miles: “A person who took a 500-mile flight every single day for a year, would have a fatality risk of 1 in 85,000.” (One variable to note: Takeoffs and landings are where the risk is, not in the number of miles flown, so risk-per-flight calculations are higher.)

Walking, bicycling

• Between 2000 and 2009, on average 6,067 pedestrians and bicyclists died on U.S. highways and in collisions with other modes of transport. Of these, 4,930 died when hit by cars and trucks operated by private users, 545 deaths resulted from collisions with commercial carriers, and 592 from commercial users not on highways.
• In all, fatalities of pedestrians and bicyclists make up nearly 15% of annual average highway fatalities. More than 90% of pedestrian fatalities occurred when the victims were hit by automobiles and light trucks.
• A related study on risk factors for on-road cycling commuters indicated that prior to car-bicycle accidents, 89% of cyclists were traveled in a safe and legal manner. In addition, vehicle drivers were at fault in 87% of the events.

A related 2013 study published in the Annals of Emergency Medicine , “Safety in Numbers: Are Major Cities the Safest Places in the United States?” examined the overall injury risk in urban areas compared with suburban and rural areas. Among the conclusions: Rural counties demonstrated significantly higher death rates than urban counties — 1.22 times greater for the most rural compared with the most urban. The majority of the difference was in unintentional incidents such as accidents, but some increase in suicide risk was also seen in rural areas. Overall, the study finds, “U.S. urban counties were safer than their rural counterparts, and injury death risk increased steadily as counties became more rural.”

Also of interest is a 2013 report by the World Health Organization. “Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013: Supporting a Decade of Action.” The study was based on country-level data and included information on newer risk factors such as cell phone use while driving. Among the findings, the report states that more than 1.24 million people die every year as a result of road traffic injuries, making it the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people aged 15-29. Based on anticipated trends, by 2030 road accidents are projected to be the fifth leading cause of death globally.

Keywords: cars, trains, Amtrak, Northeast Corridor, planes, airlines, pedestrians, bicycling, safety, distracted driving, alcohol , multitasking, driving

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Study: Commercial air travel is safer than ever

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It has never been safer to fly on commercial airlines, according to a new study by an MIT professor that tracks the continued decrease in passenger fatalities around the globe.

The study finds that between 2008 and 2017, airline passenger fatalities fell significantly compared to the previous decade, as measured per individual passenger boardings — essentially the aggregate number of passengers. Globally, that rate is now one death per 7.9 million passenger boardings, compared to one death per 2.7 million boardings during the period 1998-2007, and one death per 1.3 million boardings during 1988-1997.

Going back further, the commercial airline fatality risk was one death per 750,000 boardings during 1978-1987, and one death per 350,000 boardings during 1968-1977.

“The worldwide risk of being killed had been dropping by a factor of two every decade,” says Arnold Barnett, an MIT scholar who has published a new paper summarizing the study’s results. “Not only has that continued in the last decade, the [latest] improvement is closer to a factor of three. The pace of improvement has not slackened at all even as flying has gotten ever safer and further gains become harder to achieve. That is really quite impressive and is important for people to bear in mind.”

The paper, “Aviation Safety: A Whole New World?” was published online this month in Transportation Science . Barnett is the sole author.

The new research also reveals that there is discernible regional variation in airline safety around the world. The study finds that the nations housing the lowest-risk airlines are the U.S., the members of the European Union, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel. The aggregate fatality risk among those nations was one death per 33.1 million passenger boardings during 2008-2017. Barnett chose the nation as the unit of measurement in the study because important safety regulations for both airlines and airports are decided at the national level.

For airlines in a second set of countries, which Barnett terms the “advancing” set with an intermediate risk level, the rate is one death per 7.4 million boardings during 2008-2017. This group — comprising countries that are generally rapidly industrializing and have recently achieved high overall life expectancy and GDP per capita — includes many countries in Asia as well as some countries in South America and the Middle East.

For a third and higher-risk set of developing countries, including some in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the death risk during 2008-2017 was one per 1.2 million passenger boardings — an improvement from one death per 400,000 passenger boardings during 1998-2007.

“The two most conspicuous changes compared to previous decades were sharp improvements in China and in Eastern Europe,” says Barnett, who is the George Eastman Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. In those places, he notes, had safety achievements in the last decade that were strong even within the lowest-risk group of countries.

Overall, Barnett suggests, the rate of fatalities has declined far faster than public fears about flying.

“Flying has gotten safer and safer,” Barnett says. “It’s a factor of 10 safer than it was 40 years ago, although I bet anxiety levels have not gone down that much. I think it’s good to have the facts.”

Barnett is a long-established expert in the field of aviation safety and risk, whose work has helped contextualize accident and safety statistics. Whatever the absolute numbers of air crashes and fatalities may be — and they fluctuate from year to year — Barnett has sought to measure those numbers against the growth of air travel.

To conduct the current study, Barnett used data from a number of sources, including the Flight Safety Foundation’s Aviation Safety Network Accident Database. He mostly used data from the World Bank, based on information from the International Civil Aviation Organization, to measure the number of passengers carried, which is now roughly 4 billion per year.

In the paper, Barnett discusses the pros and cons of some alternative metrics that could be used to evaluate commercial air safety, including deaths per flight and deaths per passenger miles traveled. He prefers to use deaths per boarding because, as he writes in the paper, “it literally reflects the fraction of passengers who perished during air journeys.”

The new paper also includes historical data showing that even in today’s higher-risk areas for commerical aviation, the fatality rate is better, on aggregate, than it was in the leading air-travel countries just a few decades in the past.

“The risk now in the higher-risk countries is basically the risk we used to have 40-50 years ago” in the safest air-travel countries, Barnett notes.

Barnett readily acknowledges that the paper is evaluating the overall numbers, and not providing a causal account of the air-safety trend; he says he welcomes further research attempting to explain the reasons for the continued gains in air safety.

In the paper, Barnett also notes that year-to-year air fatality numbers have notable variation. In 2017, for instance, just 12 people died in the process of air travel, compared to 473 in 2018.

“Even if the overall trendline is [steady], the numbers will bounce up and down,” Barnett says. For that reason, he thinks looking at trends a decade at a time is a better way of grasping the full trajectory of commercial airline safety.

On a personal level, Barnett says he understands the kinds of concerns people have about airline travel. He began studying the subject partly because of his own worries about flying, and quips that he was trying to “sublimate my fears in a way that might be publishable.”

Those kinds of instinctive fears may well be natural, but Barnett says he hopes that his work can at least build public knowledge about the facts and put them into perspective for people who are afraid of airplane accidents.

“The risk is so low that being afraid to fly is a little like being afraid to go into the supermarket because the ceiling might collapse,” Barnett says.

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Press mentions.

Prof. Arnold Barnett speaks with NPR reporter Juliana Kim about airline safety and the risks associated with flying. According to Barnett, "from 2018 to 2022, the chances of a passenger being killed on a flight anywhere in the world was 1 in 13.4 million. Between 1968 to 1977, the chance was 1 in 350,000,” writes Kim.

Fast Company

Fast Company reporter Arianne Cohen writes that a new study by Prof. Arnold Barnett finds flying today is much safer than it was in the past. Barnett examined flight safety from 2008 to 2017 and found that “globally, flying today is six times safer than 30 years ago, and 22 times safer than 50 years ago.”

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In-flight Deaths During Commercial Air Travel : How Big Is the Problem?

From the Center for the Evaluation of Emergency Medical Services, Division of Emergency Medical Services, King County Department of Public Health (Dr Cummins, Ms Schubach, and Mr Litwin), and the Department of Medicine, University of Washington (Dr Cummins), Seattle; the Medical Director's Office, British Caledonian Airlines, Gatwick, England (Dr Chapman); and the Department of Cardiology, Royal Sussex County Hospital, Brighton, England (Dr Chamberlain).

Do passenger deaths occur during commercial air travel? If so, how often and from what causes? We reviewed information reported to the International Air Transport Association on in-flight deaths that occurred during commercial air travel for the eight years between 1977 and 1984. Of the 120 airlines in the International Air Transport Association, 42 carriers reported deaths during these eight years. A total of 577 in-flight deaths were recorded, for a reported average of 72 deaths per year. Deaths occurred at average rates of 0.31 per million passengers, 125 per billion passenger-kilometers, and 25.1 per million departures. The majority of those who died were men (66%, 382/577) and middle-aged (mean age, 53.8 years). Most of the individuals (77%, 399/515) reported no health problems prior to travel. Physicians aboard the aircrafts offered medical assistance for 43% (247/577) of the deaths. More than half of the deaths (56%, 326/577) seemed to be related to cardiac problems. Sudden unexpected cardiac death was the cause of death in 63% (253/399) of the apparently healthy people and seems to be the major cause of death during air travel. These observations support the initiation of programs to train cabin personnel in the skills of basic cardiopulmonary resuscitation and in the use of automatic external defibrillators.

( JAMA 1988;259:1983-1988)

Cummins RO , Chapman PJC , Chamberlain DA , Schubach JA , Litwin PE. In-flight Deaths During Commercial Air Travel : How Big Is the Problem? JAMA. 1988;259(13):1983–1988. doi:10.1001/jama.1988.03720130047028

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It's been said that all aviation safety regulations are written in blood, but how true is that?

Every year, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) releases its global safety report. In its most recent iteration, findings showed that in 2022, the aviation industry saw a nearly 10% decrease in accidents compared to 2020—furthermore, fatalities resulting from aircraft accidents dropped by over 65%.

Interestingly, these numbers have fallen despite the number of scheduled flights increasing. The ICAO attributes the improvements in safety to the safety commitments shared across the industry. In fact - the trend across many years of aviation is that today, flying is safer than ever.

Improving safety over time

According to research by Harvard University, flying in the US, Europe, and Australia is significantly safer than driving a car. Your odds of being in an accident during a flight is one in 1.2 million, and the chance of that being fatal is one in 11 million. Comparatively, your chances of dying in a car crash are over 200,000 times higher, averaging around one in 5,000.

Harvard is far from the only US academic institution researching this topic. Indeed, a 2020 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study tracked how airline safety has improved in recent years. Between 2008 and 2017, there was one fatality for every 7.9 million passengers who boarded a flight, while between 1998 and 2007, it stood at closer to one death per 2.7 million passengers.

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The trend is even more apparent in the pre-9/11 era of lowered safety standards, limited security, and airport vending machines offering airline insurance. From 1988 to 1997, there was one fatality for every 1.3 million passengers, and from 1978 to 1987, that decreased further to one per 750,000 boardings. 1968 to 1977 saw an abysmal record of one fatality for every 350,000 passengers. Adjusted to 2023 traffic figures, that would account for at least 18 aviation-related deaths every day.

Arnold Barnett, the author of the MIT paper, summarized the findings, outlining the astounding work the aviation industry has done to limit fatal accidents,

“The worldwide risk of being killed had been dropping by a factor of two every decade… The pace of improvement has not slackened at all even as flying has gotten ever safer and further gains become harder to achieve. That is really quite impressive and is important for people to bear in mind.”

Different rates for different regions

Of course, within the data, geographical differences can be found. The countries where passengers will find the lowest-risk airlines include Europe, China, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel. Across these countries, the fatality rate between 2008 and 2017 was one in 33.1 million passengers. Meanwhile, the higher-risk airlines came from developing countries that typically operate older aircraft or have limited regulatory oversight, such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

In these locations, the overall risk was found to be one fatality per 1.2 million passenger boardings. But, even here, the safety culture had improved dramatically, from one fatality per 400,000 boardings between 1998 and 2007.

What's making aviation so much safer?

A range of factors go into making air travel the safe environment it is today, ranging from engineering overhauls to improved regulation.

Recent technological developments have significantly enhanced aviation safety. Aircraft are no longer manually flown with limited navigational equipment; modern glass cockpits boast state-of-the-art technology to limit human error .

Not too long ago, at least three engines were required to cross the Atlantic due to reliability concerns and ETOPS regulations . In 1980, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) director J. Lynn Helms was quoted as telling Boeing's Engineering Director Dick Taylor that "it'll be a cold day in hell before I let twins fly long-haul, overwater routes," but just eight years later, ETOPS for was doubled from 90 minutes to 180, signaling a significant shift in the industry. Recent advancements in engine technology have seen the introduction of up to ETOPS-370 for Airbus' A350XWB, with many other twin-engine widebodies holding ETOPS-330 capabilities.

On the ground, flight crew, air traffic controllers, and dispatchers all work together to ensure a safe flight, and any changes to the plan are scrutinized by all parties to avoid mistakes.

When you're in the air, you can be confident you're flying with highly trained, certified individuals. In the US, pilots are required to have a minimum of 1,500 flying hours before they can work on a commercial airliner, the equivalent of nine straight weeks in the skies. Cabin crew is also vital to aircraft safety, with large portions of current training programs now related to keeping passengers safe onboard and minimizing risk during incidents .

Read More: 5 Major Air Disasters That Were Easily Preventable

The role of regulation and industry pressure

However, many of these advancements can be attributed to improvements in regulation. Everyone from aircraft manufacturer board members to part-time airline ground employees must adhere to strict governmental oversight. These regulations range from something as simple as minimizing work hours to reduce fatigue to ensuring aircraft parts are made from high-quality, approved materials.

Want answers to more key questions in aviation? Check out the rest of our guides here

The strict requirements for maintenance, reporting, training, and operations can extend further than the country in which it's implemented. Flight and airline bans, such as the European Union's Air Safety List, have prompted governments to shape up their act to ensure continued international operations and encourage tourism.

A notable recent graduate of the Air Safety list is Indonesia. Following two fatal crashes in early 2007 and a historically poor aviation safety record, all Indonesian airlines were banned from EU airspace. Gradual advancements by individual airlines saw some carriers slowly removed from the list before the ban was lifted entirely in 2018 amid consultation with the FAA and ICAO.

In a statement by the Government of Indonesia, EU Ambassador Yuri O. Tharmin noted the country's significant investment in improving its aviation industry and complying with global regulations. Tharmin added,

“The lifting of the flight ban for all Indonesian airlines is a form of EU ’ s recognition to the Indonesian Government in improving air safety in the country.”

What are your thoughts on the recent advancements in aviation safety? Let us know in the comments.

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• Future Perfect

America has the world’s safest air travel but sucks so bad at car safety

Three things the US can learn about road safety from our ultra-safe air travel system.

by Marina Bolotnikova

In the last decade, two passengers have been killed in accidents on US commercial airlines. Over the same period, more than 365,000 Americans have been killed by cars.

Yet it was the safety of the US air travel system that was the subject of a damning, genuinely terrifying New York Times investigation last weekend — detailing lapses in the oversight of flights that are leading to near-crashes multiple times a week. The pattern led one air traffic controller to declare: “It is only a matter of time before something catastrophic happens.”

That statement captures something essential about the way that US air travel is regulated: society expects absolute safety in plane travel, catastrophes are never meant to happen, and any loss of human life is considered unacceptable. A vast federal bureaucracy exists to make sure no one dies in a plane crash. So, what would happen if we treated cars like we do planes?

Cars kill Americans at insanely high rates and it’s not getting better

Aviation authorities call American air travel the safest in the world, the Times reported. But the safety record of our car-dependent ground transportation system is one of the worst among wealthy nations. Cars killed 43,000 Americans in 2021, a number that has, almost unbelievably, increased by nearly a third in the last decade while our peer countries have decreased their car fatalities.

In the EU, car fatalities, already far lower than America’s, were down by 22 percent over the last decade. Car crashes are just behind guns as the second greatest killer of US children. Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous Americans are disproportionately likely to be killed by a car. Merely taking a walk outside is becoming particularly dangerous: about 7,508 pedestrians were killed by cars last year, the highest number since 1981 and a massive increase over the last decade, Vox’s Marin Cogan reported last month.

The US appears, in other words, to be erasing decades of progress on reducing fatalities from one of our leading causes of death, but you wouldn’t know it from the reactions of regulators and politicians. There is no big national conversation about why 40,000-plus people are killed by cars every year, or why Americans are forced to live with a risk of car crash death roughly three times higher than Canadians and Australians, five times higher than Brits and Germans, and nine times higher than Norwegians. It’s also worth pointing out that globally, car crashes are a major cause of death , killing more people than homicides and suicides combined, and death rates remain far worse in low-income countries than they are in the US.

At this point, some people might find reasons to explain away America’s rate of road carnage, or argue that it’s unfair to compare car safety and plane safety. Many more Americans ride in cars in any given year than fly . Flights put passengers in a position of unusual vulnerability, where they’re at the mercy of highly trained, uniformed professionals — so public trust is essential for the system to work — whereas anyone could drive a car. Maybe it’s just harder to control the behavior of 200 million-plus individuals who have to drive a car just to get by in America than it is to maintain a cadre of credentialed pilots and air traffic controllers.

There are solutions, if we want them

These aren’t good excuses for our failure to prevent mass death. In reality, there’s a lot we can learn from the aviation system’s approach to passenger safety.

The most obvious is that we shouldn’t accept carnage just because the activity seems inherently dangerous. If we can figure out how to make it exceptionally safe to hurtle through the sky at over 500 miles per hour , we can definitely figure out how to keep people alive on the ground, especially because other countries have done it already. The Netherlands is a famous example , but others, including Canada, with an urban geography much more similar to ours, have steadily decreased their death rates to levels far lower than ours.

A second lesson from the aviation sector is that safety is a systemic responsibility. “The [air] safety regime, with its built-in redundancies, is known in aviation circles as the Swiss cheese model: If a problem slips through a hole in one layer, it will be caught by another,” the New York Times explained, which has added up to a near-spotless safety record.

Compare that to the situation in car safety, where high death rates are accepted as a baseline part of how the system works rather than an institutional failure. Media coverage treats surges in crash deaths as if they are uncontrollable fluctuations in the weather and blames people driving recklessly for getting themselves killed. In the American traffic engineering bureaucracy, there’s a widely circulated myth that the vast majority of crashes are caused by “human error,” transportation writer David Zipper explained in the Atlantic in 2021.

Of course, individuals making unsafe choices — speeding, say, or driving drunk — matters. But these are distractions from what makes the American system of driving so unsafe in the first place: we have a proliferation of fundamentally unsafe roads, known among traffic safety advocates as “ stroads ,” that combine wide lanes and speeds higher than 25 miles per hour with frequent turns, stops at traffic lights, and shared traffic with cars, pedestrians, and bikes. With all these conflict points, it’s inevitable that collisions will happen.

The bottom line is that it simply doesn’t work to expect individuals to keep themselves safe in an environment built to kill them. “A robust safety system can’t depend on people always being at their best,” as journalist James Fallows recently wrote on how air travel became so safe.

A third lesson from aviation is that dangerous technology has to be adequately regulated. Empirical research increasingly shows that the rapid takeover of big cars — SUVs and pickup trucks — is a major factor behind our car safety backslide over the last decade. But US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has declined to call for policies to discourage the proliferation of these vehicles (like Washington, DC’s tax on oversized cars ).

Buttigieg has, to his credit, acknowledged traffic deaths are at unacceptable levels and pointed to road design as a key factor. That’s no doubt thanks to the influence of Vision Zero , a movement that has greatly changed the conversation about why people are killed by cars.

Commentators have observed an American “learned helplessness” toward gun violence — you might say the same thing of traffic violence . There barely even seems to be a sense that we can do better, that our political leaders owe us better. A humane system would make it very hard and very rare for someone to die on the road; it would put responsibility on those who design our built environment to prevent mass death.

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Transportation Fatalities by Mode

Embedded Dataset Excel:

Dataset Excel:

To reduce double counting, the following adjustments are made to Total Fatalities : For Railroad, fatalities involving motor vehicles at public highway-rail grade crossings are excluded because such fatalities are assumed to be included in Highway fatalities. For Transit, non-rail modes, including aerial tramway, motor bus, bus rapid transit, commuter bus, demand response, demand taxi, ferryboat, jitney, publico, trolleybus, and vanpool fatalities are excluded because they are counted as Water and Highway fatalities. Other counts, redundant with above help eliminate double counting in the Total Fatalities .

Caution must be exercised in comparing fatalities across modes because significantly different definitions are used.  In particular, Rail and Transit fatalities include incident-related (as distinct from accident-related) fatalities, such as fatalities from falls in transit stations or railroad employee fatalities from a fire in a workshed. Equivalent fatalities for the Air and Highway modes (fatalities at airports not caused by moving aircraft or fatalities from accidents in automobile repair shops) are not counted toward the totals for these modes.  Thus, fatalities not necessarily directly related to in service transportation are counted for the transit and rail modes, potentially overstating the risk for these modes. 

The Federal Railroad Administration defines a grade crossing as a location where a public highway, road, street, or private roadway, including associated sidewalks and pathways, crosses one or more railroad tracks at grade. The Federal Transit Administration defines two types of grade crossings: (1) At grade, mixed, and cross traffic crossings, meaning railway right-of-way over which other traffic moving in the same direction or other cross directions may pass. This includes city street right-of-way; (2) At grade with cross traffic crossings, meaning railway right-of-way over which no other traffic may pass, except to cross at grade-level crossings. This can include median strip rights-of-way with grade level crossings at intersecting streets. 

Highway fatalities data prior to 1975 have been adjusted to reflect the Fatality Analysis Reporting System's definition of a fatal crash as one that involves a motor vehicle on a traffic way that results in the death of a vehicle occupant or a nonmotorist within 30 days of the crash.

Water injury data for 2001 and before is not comparable with later years due to a change in the reporting system.

Current version of this table is not comparable with the versions before 2014 because of the categories changing for some modes.

Description:

KEY: N = data does not exist; P = preliminary; R = revised; U = data are not available.

a All services operating under 14 CFR 121 ( Scheduled air carriers ).  Since Mar. 20, 1997, 14 CFR 121 include aircraft with 10 or more seats that formerly operated under 14 CFR 135. This change makes it difficult to compare pre-1997 data for 14 CFR 121 and 14 CFR 135 with more recent data.  In 2001, other than the persons aboard the aircraft who were killed, fatalities resulting from the September 11 terrorist acts are excluded. U.S. air carrier figure does not include 12 persons killed aboard a commuter aircraft when it and a US Air airliner collided.

b All scheduled service operating under 14 CFR 135 ( Commuter air carriers ). Before Mar. 20, 1997, 14 CFR 135 applied to aircraft with 30 or fewer seats. Since Mar. 20, 1997, 14 CFR 135 includes only aircraft with fewer than 10 seats.  This change makes it difficult to compare pre-1997 data for 14 CFR 121 and 14 CFR 135  with more recent data. Commuter air carrier figure does not include 22 persons killed aboard a US Air airliner when it and a commuter aircraft collided.

c Nonscheduled service operating under 14 CFR 135 ( On-demand air taxis ). 

d All operations other than those operating under 14 CFR 121 and 14 CFR 135.

e Light trucks are defined as trucks of 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating or less, including pickups, vans, truck-based station wagons, and utility vehicles. Large trucks are defined as trucks over 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating, including single-unit trucks and truck tractors.

f Includes occupants of other vehicle types, other nonmotorists, and unknown. For 1960-70, the U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration did not break out fatality data to the same level of detail as in later years, so fatalities for those years also include occupants of passenger cars, trucks, and buses.

g Railroad fatality data for 1975 and before is not comparable with later years due to a change in the reporting system.

h Other incidents are events other than Train Accidents or Crossing Incidents that cause physical harm to persons.

i Includes transit employee, contract worker, passenger, revenue facility occupant, and other fatalities for all modes reported in the National Transit Database. 

j Passenger, freight, and industrial/other include only closed cases where vessels were involved in a marine casualty. See the notes below for a table of open investigations.

k Passenger includes passenger ships, research ships, and schools ships and include only closed cases where vessels were involved in a marine casualty. See the notes below for a table of open investigations. 

l Freight includes barges, bulk carriers, general dry cargo ships, refrigerated cargo ships, roll-on/roll-off ships, tank ships, and towing ships and include only closed cases where vessels were involved in a marine casualty. See the notes below for a table of open investigations.

m Industrial/other includes fishing vessels, miscellaneous vessels, and offshore include only closed cases where vessels were involved in a marine casualty. See the notes below for a table of open investigations.

n Recreational includes airboats, canoes, kayaks, motorboats, pontoon, rowboats, and sailboats. Data are based on information provided by the States, the District of Columbia and the five U.S. Territories to the Coast Guard Boating Accident Report Database (BARD) system, which is subject to some under- or delayed reporting.

o Includes passenger train collisions with vehicles and people at all public and private highway-rail grade crossings.

p Highway-rail grade crossing fatalities include freight train collisions with vehicles and people at all public and private highway-rail grade crossings.

q Vessel-related casualties include those involving damage to vessels such as collisions or groundings. Fatalities not related to vessel casualties include deaths from falling overboard or from accidents involving onboard equipment. 

r 1992-97 data come from the Marine Safety Management Information System. Between 1998 and 2001, the U.S. Coast Guard phased in a new computer system to track safety data, the Marine Information for Safety and Law Enforcement System. During that period, data come from combining entries in the Marine Safety Management Information System with entries in the Marine Information for Safety and Law Enforcement System. Data for prior years come from other sources and may not be directly comparable. 

Air, total:

Sum of categories.

U.S. Air Carrier:

1960: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations , Calendar Year 1967 (Washington, DC: December 1968).

1965-70: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations, Calendar Year 1975 , NTSB/ARC-77/1 (Washington, DC: January 1977).

1975: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations, Calendar Year 1983 , NTSB/ARC-87/01 (Washington, DC: February 1987), table 18.

1980: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations, Calendar Year 1981 , NTSB/ARC-85/01 (Washington, DC: February 1985), tables 2 and 16.

1985-2022: National Transportation Safety Board,  Aviation Accident Statistics  (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table 5, available at  http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/pages/aviation_stats.aspx  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

1975-80: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations , Calendar Year 1980, NTSB/ARC-83/01 (Washington, DC: January 1983), tables 26 and 40.

1985-2022: National Transportation Safety Board,  Aviation Accident Statistics  (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table 8, available at  http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/pages/aviation_stats.aspx  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

On-demand air taxi:

1975-80: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. Air Carrier Operations , Calendar Year 1981, NTSB/ARC-85/01 (Washington, DC: February 1985), table 61.

1985-2022: National Transportation Safety Board,  Aviation Accident Statistics  (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table 9, available at  http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/pages/aviation_stats.aspx  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

General aviation:

1960-70: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: U.S. General Aviation , Calendar Year 1970, NTSB/ARG-74/1 (Washington, DC: April 1974), table 117.

1975-80: National Transportation Safety Board,  Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data: General Aviation, Calendar Year 1985 , NTSB/ARG-87/03 (Washington, DC: October 1987), table 21.

1985-2022: National Transportation Safety Board,  Aviation Accident Statistics  (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table 10, available at  http://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/data/pages/aviation_stats.aspx  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

1960-65:  U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from data supplied by U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics, and individual state accident reports (adjusted to 30-day deaths).

1970: U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration,  Traffic Safety Facts  (Annual Editions), Table 4, available at  https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/#/  as of Oct. 2017.

1975-2022: U.S. Department of Transportation,  National Highway Traffic Safety Administration , Personal Communication, Jan. 12, 2021, Mar. 4, 2022, and Jun. 6, 2024.

1960-70: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Office of Policy and Program Development,  Rail-Highway Grade-Crossing Handbook 2007 , available at  https://safety.fhwa.dot.gov/hsip/xings/com_roaduser/07010/sec01.cfm  as of Nov. 14, 2019.

1975-2023: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Railroad Administration, Office of Safety Analysis, table 1.12, 1.13, and 5.14 , available at  http://safetydata.fra.dot.gov/OfficeofSafety/  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

1990-2001: U.S. Department of Transportation, Volpe Center,  Transit Safety and Security Statistics , Mar. 2015.

2002-23: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration,  National Transportation Database , Safety & Security Time Series Data (Washington, DC: Monthly Issues) available at  https://www.transit.dot.gov/ntd/ntd-data  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

Passenger, Freight, Industrial/Other:

U.S Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Coast Guard, Office of Investigations and Analysis, Compliance Analysis Division, personal communication, Nov. 20, 2012 and Nov. 12, 2013, Aug. 31, 2015, May 2016, July 2017, Aug. 16, 2018, Aug. 28, 2019, Sept. 9, 2020, Aug. 6, 2021, Oct. 25, 2023.

Recreational:

1960-02: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Coast Guard, Office of Boating Safety,  Boating Statistics  (Washington, DC: Annual Issues), table 31, available at  http://www.uscgboating.org  as of Jun. 2014.

2003-23: U.S. Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Coast Guard, Office of Boating Safety, Recreational Boating Statistics (annual issues), table 29, available at  www.uscgboating.org  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

1970-85: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Office of Pipeline Safety,  Accident and Incident Summary Statistics by Year , available at  https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/hazmat-program-management-data-and-statistics/data-operations/incident-statistics  as of Nov. 18, 2003.

1990-2023: U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Office of Pipeline Safety,  Accident and Incident Summary Statistics by Year , available at  https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/pipeline-incident...  as of Jun. 6, 2024.

A link between air travel and deaths on the ground

The atmosphere is full of natural and man-made chemicals, including emissions from fuel combustion and byproducts of living organisms. Many of these chemicals combine in the atmosphere to form tiny solid and liquid particles known as “fine particulate matter” that are 2.5 micrometers or smaller (the average human hair is about 70 micrometers in diameter, by comparison). While it’s not clear whether all of these particles may be harmful, some are; the danger to humans comes when they are inhaled and trapped in the lungs, where they can then enter the bloodstream.

In 2004, the World Health Organization estimated that about one million deaths per year are caused by air pollution, and several epidemiological studies have linked air pollution to the development of cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, including lung cancer. Those studies tracked thousands of adults over many years to measure their exposure to air pollution while monitoring their health. Once the data were statistically analyzed to correct for other risk factors like smoking, the results indicated that increased exposure to fine particulate matter caused by air pollution is linked to health problems like chronic bronchitis and decreased lung function, as well as premature death.

Aviation emissions contribute to this health problem, according to a new study that suggests that airplanes flying at a cruise altitude of around 35,000 feet emit pollutants that contribute to about 8,000 deaths per year globally. The research,  reported online this month  in the journal  Environmental Science and Technology , provides the first estimate of premature deaths attributable to aircraft emissions at cruise altitudes. Aircraft emit nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur oxides (SOx), which react with gases already existing in the atmosphere to form harmful fine particulate matter.

Tracking emissions

Current worldwide regulations target aircraft emissions only up to 3,000 feet. That’s because regulators have assumed that anything emitted above 3,000 feet would be deposited into a part of the atmosphere that has significantly smoother air, meaning pollutants wouldn’t be affected by turbulent air that could mix them toward the ground. Thus, even though 90 percent of aircraft fuel is burned at cruise altitudes, only those pollutants that are emitted during takeoff and landing are regulated by measuring emissions during tests of newly manufactured engines in simulated takeoff and landing conditions.

“Anything above that [altitude] really hasn’t been regulated, and the goal of this research was to determine whether that was really justified,” says lead author Steven Barrett, the Charles Stark Draper Assistant Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics in MIT’s Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

To study the effects of cruise emissions, Barrett used a computer model that combined data about plane trajectories, the amount of fuel burned during flights and the estimated emissions from those flights. He combined that with a global atmospheric model that accounts for air-circulation patterns in different parts of the globe and the effect of emissions to determine where aviation emissions might cause an increase in fine particulate matter. He then used data related to population density and risk of disease in different parts of the world to determine how the change in particulate matter over certain regions might affect people on the ground — specifically, whether the air pollutants would lead to an increased risk of death.

Analysis of these data revealed that aircraft pollution above North America and Europe — where air travel is heaviest — adversely impacts air quality in India and China. That is, even though the amount of fuel burned by aircraft over India and China accounts for only 10 percent of the estimated total amount of fuel burned by aircraft across the globe, the two countries incur nearly half — about 3,500 — of the annual deaths related to aircraft cruise emissions. The analysis also revealed that although every country in the Northern Hemisphere experienced some number of fatalities related to these emissions, almost none of the countries in the Southern Hemisphere had fatalities.

That’s because the majority of air traffic occurs in the Northern Hemisphere, where planes emit pollutants at altitudes where high-speed winds flowing eastward, such as the jet stream, spread emissions to other continents, according to the study. Part of the reason for the high percentage of premature deaths in India and China is that these regions are densely populated and also have high concentrations of ammonia in their atmosphere as a result of farming. This ammonia reacts with oxidized NOx and SOx to create fine particulate matter that people inhale on the ground. Although agriculture is abundant in Europe and North America, the ammonia levels aren’t as elevated above those regions.

Industry reaction

Funded by the UK Research Councils with help from the U.S. Department of Transportation, the study recommends that cruise emissions be “explicitly considered” by international policymakers who regulate aviation engines and fuels. Steve Lott, a spokesman for the International Air Transport Association, a trade group that represents 230 airlines, says that aviation is “a small part of a big problem,” particularly when compared to other transportation sources of emissions, such as those caused by shipping, which a 2007 study linked to 60,000 premature deaths per year.

Lourdes Maurice, the chief scientific and technical adviser for environment at the Federal Aviation Administration, says that if the agency can confirm Barrett’s findings through additional research, then it will work with the Environmental Protection Agency and the International Civil Aviation Organization to consider appropriate regulatory action. The FAA will continue to fund research to address uncertainties highlighted by Barrett’s work, she adds.

Barrett concedes that there are many uncertainties, including how accurately the model reflects how air travels vertically from high altitudes to low altitudes. To address this, he is collaborating with researchers at Harvard to study an isotope of the element beryllium that is produced naturally at high altitudes and attaches to atmospheric particles that eventually reach the ground through air or rain. Researchers have a general idea of how much beryllium is concentrated in the atmosphere, and Barrett and his colleagues are currently analyzing ground measurements of the element to quantify the extent to which his model “gets vertical transport right.”

(Morgan Bettex, MIT News Office)

See further coverage at:

• GreenAir Online
• Chemistry World
• National Geographic
• The Economist
• The Indian Express
• Enviro News

The original research article is available at  DOI: 10.1021/es101325r .

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U.S. air carrier fatal accidents & fatalities 2000-2020

Number of fatal accidents and fatalities involving u.s. air carriers between 2000 and 2020*.

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2000 to 2020

* Includes scheduled and unscheduled services for US Air Carriers Operating Under 14 CFR 121, which are generally large, U.S.-based airlines, regional air carriers, and all cargo operators. ** Includes victims of the September 11 hijackings. *** Preliminary data.

Other statistics on the topic Air transportation safety in the U.S.

• Total air traffic passengers traveling to/from the United States 2006-2022
• Fatal and non-fatal accidents in U.S. general aviation 2000-2020
• Lifetime odds of dying in a transport accident in the U.S. 2020
• Fatalities from general aviation in the U.S. 2000-2020

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Statistics on " Air transportation safety in the U.S. "

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The Busiest Days for Air Travel, 2009-2024

August 2nd 2024 was the busiest day ever for air travel, with 17,987,792 airline seats scheduled for that day. This in itself is an interesting fact, but what if we took it a step further to analyse the busiest day of the year, each year for the past 15 years to see what patterns might emerge? What insights can we gain about the busiest month and day of the week for flights, the busiest routes, airports and airlines? Read on to see what we've uncovered.

What Were The Busiest Days for Air Travel in Each of the the Past 15 Years?

August 2nd 2024 the busiest day ever (so far) for air travel, and in fact when we look at the schedules data, every one of the current top 10 - or even top 40! - busiest days ever for air travel fell in 2024. Reviewing the list of the biggest days for air travel 2009-2024, below, you'll see some patterns start to emerge. 

Almost all of the busiest annual days to fly have been in July or August , but, as you might expect, the 'exceptions to the rule' occurred in 2020 and 2021, when the global pandemic caused travel restrictions and a huge reduction in flight capacity. In 2020 capacity peaked on the 3rd of January, which was the last Friday before news of the Covid-19 virus started to emerge globally. Air travel was still largely off the cards for most of 2021, but with vaccination and testing programs gaining momentum, travel restrictions started to ease in some regions in the latter half of the year, and the busiest day was 17th December - the Friday before the start of the Christmas holidays.

What is the Busiest Day of the Year for Air Travel?

Each year for the past 16 years, the top day for airline capacity has been a Friday.

• Six of the busiest annual days for travel were on the second Friday of August, making it the most common.
• Four of them happened on the first Friday of August.
• Four times, the busiest day was in July.
• In the two pandemic era, 'outlier' years, 2020 and 2021, the busiest days of travel were in January and December respectively.

So, is a Friday in early August the worst day to travel? If we agree that delays, long queues and cancellations add up to a bad day of travel, then rest assured that airlines and airports run a well-oiled machine, with staffing levels, turnarounds , and timings meticulously planned for efficiency. You're no more likely to encounter a stressful day of air travel - which tend to be caused by more random, uncontrollable weather events or IT meltdowns - on the busiest day than on any other.

Which Airports See Most Passengers on The Busiest Days of Air Travel?

Press play on the map above and you'll see that through the years, the top 5 busiest airports on the year's biggest day for air capacity have not varied all that much, although their positions switch. You can hit pause to explore the information further by hovering over the numbers on the map.

If you're a keen follower of our Busiest Airports in The World monthly rankings, you'll know that Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson is consistently the top ranked airport, and this is reflected in the busiest airports on the top days for air travel.

Noticeably, Dubai International Airport makes the list of busiest airports on the busiest day in 2015, and has remained there since. On the other hand, Beijing Capital was the top airport for seats on 3rd January 2020 but has stayed out of the top 5 since then, as a second airport, Beijing Daxing, opened in the city in late 2019. 

Which Airlines are Busiest on the Biggest Days for Air Travel?

For the top airlines on the days with most capacity, we've looked at two different metrics to plot these line graphs. The first shows the top 5 carriers for each year, with the ranking based on seat capacity. The second uses Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs).

When it comes to seats, Southwest has been comfortably in the top two biggest airlines on the busiest day, swapping places with Delta a couple of times over the years. Reflecting its position as a short-haul carrier, Southwest comes in further down the ranks when we look at ASKs, switching between fourth and fifth placed.

American , Delta and United have shared the top spot as biggest airline by ASKs on the biggest days for airline capacity over the years, Delta having had seven years at the top, United has been number one six times (five of them since 2020) and American Airlines, three.

Which are the Top Routes on The Busiest Days of Air Travel?

Where do people go on the busiest days for travel? The busiest flight routes based on scheduled seats are all short-haul flights, as you'd expect, and most are domestic. Since 2014, the busiest route has been Jeju Airport (CJU) - Seoul Gimpon (GMP) . For the whole of August 2024, there were 1.2 million scheduled seats on this route.

Our blog is updated frequently with fresh data,  expert insights, news from the airline world and guidance to help the travel industry work better with aviation data. Subscribe for a weekly round up, below. 👇

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News & Insights

M&A News: Alaska Air-Hawaiian Airlines Merger Passes DOJ Antitrust Hurdle

August 20, 2024 — 07:22 am EDT

Written by Sheryl Sheth for TipRanks  ->

Alaska Air Group’s (ALK) potential combination with Hawaiian Holdings (HA) , the parent company of Hawaiian Airlines, has passed the major antitrust regulatory hurdle. Alaska released a statement noting that the time period for the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) investigation into the long-pending merger expired this morning. This implies that the DOJ is not worried about the merger triggering any monopolistic or anti-competitive issues. The deal now awaits the final clearance from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT).

Potential Benefits of the Alaska-Hawaiian Airlines Merger

Alaska and Hawaiian Airlines announced their willingness to merge in December 2023, in a $1.9 billion all-cash deal . Alaska agreed to pay $18 per share to acquire Hawaiian and assume $900 million in debt. The deal has faced its fair share of hurdles, with the DOJ’s acquisition review period getting delayed time and again.

Both companies have maintained that the merger will strengthen their offerings in the Hawaiian zone through more frequent flights. Together, the two companies are expected to have more than 50% of Hawaii’s market share.

If the deal goes through, the combined entity would become the fifth largest air carrier in the U.S. Alaska would have access to over 360 wide-body and narrow-body jets across more than 130 destinations. The two carriers have also agreed to retain their brands.

For Hawaiian Airlines, the deal would infuse fresh liquidity and expand its reach. Travel to Hawaii from Asian countries, especially Japan, has failed to pick up pace even after the pandemic. This has greatly impacted Hawaiian Holdings’ financials and stock price performance.

Is ALK a Good Stock to Buy Now?

On TipRanks, ALK stock commands a Strong Buy consensus rating based on seven Buys and one Hold recommendation. The average Alaska Air Group price target of $53 implies 51.6% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, ALK shares have lost 10.5%.

See more ALK analyst ratings

Is Hawaiian Airlines a Good Stock?

Owing to Hawaiian Airlines’ internal performance issues, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on HA stock. This is based on two Hold ratings on TipRanks. Also, the average Hawaiian Holdings price target of $13 implies 18.1% downside potential from current levels. HA shares have gained 11.8% so far in 2024, thanks to the anticipated merger.

See more HA analyst ratings

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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